2025-06-29-KROLL-汽车行业洞察——2025年夏季（英）_18页_1mb

Automotive Industry Summer 2025 Report Summary

Global Sales Overview

In 2024, global automotive light vehicle sales grew 1.7% to 88.1 million units, but this growth slowed significantly in 2025 with only a 1.6% projected increase. Key factors include weaker customer demand, mixed economic conditions, and geopolitical risks, particularly tariffs. The industry remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

National Market Insights

• United States: Sales increased 1.9% YoY in 2024 to 15.9 million units, with strong Q4 performance. However, 2025 projections show a drop to 15.4 million units due to tariffs increasing vehicle costs and reducing consumer demand. Electric vehicle (EV) share remained around 10%.
• China: Sales reached 31.4 million units in 2024 (up 4.6%), supported by government subsidies and tax exemptions. EV market share hit 48%, with exports expected to grow 6% despite tariffs.
• Europe: Vehicle sales grew 0.9% in 2024, but slowed in 2025 due to economic uncertainty. EV market share reached 54.1%, driven by hybrid vehicles, while combustion engine sales declined.

Electrification Trends

EV adoption varies by region, with China leading at near 50% market share. Globally, EV sales are expected to make up one in four car sales by 2025, reflecting acceleration in Europe and the U.S.

Trade Tariffs Impact

Tariffs, especially US-China tariffs implemented in 2025, are driving up vehicle prices and affecting sales. U.S. auto prices are projected to increase by $2,000 to $10,000, reducing sales volumes. European and Asian automakers are adapting by shifting production and stockpiling exports.

M&A and Investment Activity

Automotive M&A activity declined sharply, with only 77 transactions in Q1 2025—down 46% from the previous year—due to economic uncertainty. Large investments are shrinking as companies avoid reconfiguring operations amid trade negotiations.

Public Company Performance

Equity indices show mixed results; mobility and EV sectors performed well, while dealers, OEMs, and suppliers underperformed the S&P 500. Valuation multiples have decreased, indicating reduced confidence amid tariffs and market volatility.

Key Takeaways

The industry faces headwinds from tariffs, weakening demand, and economic factors, but EVs and government incentives are key drivers in China and Europe. Overall, growth is modest, with regional variations prominent.