全球近实时碳排放报告2025_22页_2mb

Global Near-real-time Daily CO₂ Emission Report (2025)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of global and national CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes from January 1, 2019, to September 30, 2025. It is based on the Carbon Monitor dataset, which offers near-real-time, daily CO₂ emission data with near-global coverage. The data are derived from a variety of sources, including hourly power generation data from 56 countries, monthly industrial production data from 62 countries, daily mobility data from 500 cities, and individual flight data for aviation and maritime sectors.

The report highlights the overall trend of CO₂ emissions and their changes across different sectors and countries. Projections for the full year of 2025 are made using a time series forecasting model based on additive decomposition, which considers trend, seasonality, holiday effects, and stochastic variability.

Key Findings

Global Trends

• Record-high global daily CO₂ emissions in 2025, with a slowing growth trend.
• Projections for 2025 are based on historical data from 2019 to 2025, indicating a continuation of increasing emissions at the global level.

Country-Specific Emission Changes

China

• Overall decline: Daily CO₂ emissions decreased by 1.2% from 2024 to 2025.
• Sectoral breakdown:
  • Power: -1.4%
  • Industry: -0.6%
  • Ground Transport: -4.2%
  • Residential: +1.0%
  • Domestic Aviation: +1.5%
• China led global emissions reductions in 2025, driven by declines across multiple sectors.

United States

• Overall increase: Daily CO₂ emissions increased by 2.7% from 2024 to 2025.
• Sectoral breakdown:
  • Power: +2.5%
  • Industry: +1.3%
  • Ground Transport: +2.4%
  • Residential: +5.7%
  • Domestic Aviation: +1.7%

India

• Overall slight increase: Daily CO₂ emissions increased by 0.4% from 2024 to 2025.
• Sectoral breakdown:
  • Power: -3.4%
  • Industry: +4.5%
  • Ground Transport: +3.6%
  • Residential: +6.9%
  • Domestic Aviation: +4.1%

EU27

• Overall increase: Daily CO₂ emissions increased by 0.9% from 2024 to 2025.
• Sectoral breakdown:
  • Power: +0.6%
  • Industry: +2.1%
  • Ground Transport: -0.5%
  • Residential: +1.9%
  • Domestic Aviation: +5.3%

Russia

• Overall decline: Daily CO₂ emissions decreased by 1.0% from 2024 to 2025.
• Sectoral breakdown:
  • Power: -0.2%
  • Industry: +2.0%
  • Ground Transport: -9.2%
  • Residential: -2.7%
  • Domestic Aviation: +1.2%

Japan

• Overall increase: Daily CO₂ emissions increased by 0.8% from 2024 to 2025.
• Sectoral breakdown:
  • Power: -0.7%
  • Industry: +0.2%
  • Ground Transport: +0.9%
  • Residential: +7.0%
  • Domestic Aviation: +2.2%

United Kingdom

• Overall increase: Daily CO₂ emissions increased by 1.5% from 2024 to 2025.
• Sectoral breakdown:
  • Power: +1.3%
  • Industry: +0.9%
  • Ground Transport: +2.1%
  • Residential: +1.2%
  • Domestic Aviation: +5.9%

Rest of the World (ROW)

• Overall increase: Daily CO₂ emissions increased by 1.6% from 2024 to 2025.
• Sectoral breakdown:
  • Power: +0.0%
  • Industry: +3.2%
  • Ground Transport: +2.2%
  • Residential: +2.2%
  • Domestic Aviation: +6.0%
  • International Aviation: +5.1%
  • International Shipping: -3.9%

Data Notes

• The report is based on the daily CO₂ emission dataset released by Carbon Monitor on November 1, 2025.
• Coverage: 175,015 daily records from 2019 to 2025, across 7 sectors and 9 regions.
• Emission scope: Includes fossil fuel combustion and industrial process emissions, aligning with IPCC 2006 Guidelines.
• Data access: Up-to-date data are available at https://carbonmonitor.org.
• Versioning: Updates to source datasets may cause differences between versions.

Methodology

• Estimation sources: Hourly power generation data, monthly industrial production data, daily mobility data, individual flight data, and monthly fuel consumption data adjusted for air temperature.
• Forecasting model: Uses an additive decomposition framework to separate emissions into trend, seasonality, holiday effects, and error components.
• Data disaggregation: Emissions are broken down by country and sector to reflect heterogeneous patterns.
• Modeling approach: Each country-sector series is modeled independently to preserve unique dynamics.

Sector Classification Mapping

Related Projects and Datasets

• Carbon Monitor: Global daily CO₂ emissions dataset
• Carbon Monitor - China: Daily CO₂ emissions for 30 provinces
• Carbon Monitor - Europe: Daily CO₂ emissions for 30 European countries
• Carbon Monitor - Power: Global type-specific power generation data
• Carbon Monitor - Cities: Daily CO₂ emissions for cities
• GRACED: Global daily CO₂ emission maps

Related Papers

• Deng, Z., Zhu, B., Davis, S.J. et al. Global carbon emissions and decarbonization in 2024. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 6, 231-233 (2025).
• Liu, Z., Deng, Z., Davis, S.J. et al. Global carbon emissions in 2023. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 5, 253-254 (2024).
• Liu, Z., Deng, Z., Davis, S. et al. Monitoring global carbon emissions in 2022. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 4, 205–206 (2023).
• Liu, Z., Deng, Z., Zhu, B. et al. Global patterns of daily CO₂ emissions reductions in the first year of COVID-19. Nature Geoscience (2022).
• Davis, S.J., Liu, Z., Deng, Z. et al. Emissions rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Climate Change 12, 412-414 (2022).
• Liu, Z., Deng, Z., Davis, S.J. et al. Monitoring global carbon emissions in 2021. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 3, 217-219 (2022).
• Liu, Z., Ciais, P., Deng, Z. et al. Near-real-time monitoring of global CO₂ emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Communications 11, 5172 (2020).
• Liu, Z., Ciais, P., Deng, Z. et al. Carbon Monitor, a near-real-time daily dataset of global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel and cement production. Scientific Data 7, 392 (2020).