2017新兴技术成熟度曲线（英文版）_66页_609kb

2017 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Summary

Core Content

The 2017 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies outlines the trajectory of technologies that are expected to significantly impact business and society over the next five to ten years. Gartner identifies three main megatrends: AI Everywhere, Transparently Immersive Experiences, and Digital Platforms. These trends are driven by the convergence of emerging technologies and are reshaping the way organizations operate, interact with customers, and innovate.

Main Trends and Key Technologies

AI Everywhere

• Definition: AI technologies are becoming pervasive across industries, enabling new ways to process data, automate tasks, and create intelligent systems.
• Key Technologies:
  • Deep Learning
  • Deep Reinforcement Learning
  • Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
  • Autonomous Vehicles
  • Cognitive Computing
  • Commercial UAVs (Drones)
  • Conversational User Interfaces
  • Enterprise Taxonomy and Ontology Management
  • Machine Learning
  • Smart Dust
  • Smart Robots
  • Smart Workspace

Transparently Immersive Experiences

• Definition: Technologies that enhance human interaction with digital environments by making them more adaptive, contextual, and immersive.
• Key Technologies:
  • 4D Printing
  • Augmented Reality
  • Brain-Computer Interface
  • Connected Home
  • Human Augmentation
  • Nanotube Electronics
  • Virtual Reality
  • Volumetric Displays

Digital Platforms

• Definition: Emerging technologies that are enabling the development of new platforms to support digital transformation and business model innovation.
• Key Technologies:
  • 5G
  • Digital Twin
  • Edge Computing
  • Blockchain
  • IoT Platform
  • Neuromorphic Hardware
  • Quantum Computing
  • Serverless PaaS
  • Software-Defined Security

Major Hype Cycle Changes

• New Technologies Introduced in 2017:

  • 5G
  • Artificial General Intelligence
  • Deep Reinforcement Learning
  • Digital Twin
  • Serverless PaaS
  • Software-Defined Security

• Technologies that Moved Significantly from 2016:

  • Blockchain: Gaining traction across multiple industries, with potential for transformation in manufacturing, government, healthcare, and education.
  • Commercial UAVs (Drones): Advancements in AI and computing power are expanding their use in various sectors.
  • Software-Defined Security (SDSec): Moving toward a more flexible, software-based security model.
  • Brain-Computer Interface (BCI): Expected to be integrated into VR headsets and offer hands-free interaction.

The Priority Matrix

Technologies Off the Hype Cycle

Some technologies that were previously on the Hype Cycle are no longer tracked, as they have matured or been replaced by newer innovations. These include:

• 802.11ax
• Affective Computing
• Context Brokering
• Gesture Control Devices
• Data Broker PaaS (dbrPaaS)
• Micro Data Centers
• Natural-Language Question Answering
• Personal Analytics
• Smart Data Discovery
• Virtual Personal Assistants

On the Rise

Smart Dust

• Definition: Tiny wireless micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) or devices that can detect environmental properties and communicate wirelessly.
• Status: Still in the embryonic stage, with limited commercial applications.
• Potential Impact: Can transform business operations and human interaction with the environment.
• Business Advice:
  • Explore R&D partnerships to develop 4D-suitable materials.
  • Consider open innovation or consortium approaches.
• Sample Vendors: Amphenol Advanced Sensors, Linear Technology, MEMSIC, Millennial Net, Moog

4D Printing

• Definition: A technique that allows printed materials to change shape or properties after printing, often using smart materials and nanotechnology.
• Status: Embryonic, with research and development ongoing.
• Potential Impact: Could disrupt industries such as automotive, aerospace, defense, and medical.
• Business Advice:
  • Focus on strategic partnerships and proof of concept development.
  • Explore R&D opportunities to refine and scale 4D printing.
• Sample Vendors: Autodesk, Geosyntec Consultants, MIT, Stratasys

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

• Definition: A form of AI that can perform any intellectual task that a human can. Currently, AGI is theoretical and not yet achievable.
• Status: Embryonic, with no commercial products.
• Potential Impact: Could lead to significant changes in business and society, though risks are high.
• Business Advice:
  • Focus on special-purpose AI applications.
  • Avoid overhyping AGI unless there is substantial progress.
• Recommended Reading:
  • "Smart Machines See Major Breakthroughs After Decades of Failure"
  • "How to Define and Use Smart Machine Terms Effectively"

Deep Reinforcement Learning

• Definition: Combines deep neural networks with reinforcement learning to enable systems to learn from sparse feedback.
• Status: Embryonic, with limited commercial applications.
• Potential Impact: Could lead to breakthroughs in robotics and automation.
• Business Advice:
  • Only consider deep reinforcement learning if no other solution is viable.
  • Use simulations and controlled environments for development.
• Sample Vendors: Google, Nvidia, OpenAI

Conclusion

The 2017 Hype Cycle emphasizes the importance of staying ahead of emerging technologies to gain competitive advantage. While some technologies are already showing promise, many remain in the early stages of development. Enterprise architects and technology leaders must evaluate these trends carefully and invest in those that align with long-term strategic goals.