2022-04-04-莱坊-Australian_Residential_Market_Update_April_2022_2页_1mb

Australian Residential Market Summary – April 2022

Core Content Overview

The Australian residential property market in April 2022 is influenced by several key trends, including the impact of severe weather events, the looming federal election, the federal budget's stance on housing affordability, rising household costs, and muted population growth. These factors collectively shape buyer and seller behavior, investment decisions, and policy responses.

Main Trends and Key Insights

1. Severe Weather Events Affecting the Market

• Impact on Housing: Severe weather events, such as flood events from La Niña and bushfires in Western Australia, have led to over 1,000 homes being lost and extensive damage to thousands more.
• Behavioral Shift: Many Australians, even those not directly affected, are spending more time indoors, increasing the demand for homes with good infrastructure and connectivity.
• Homebuyer Priorities:
  • Broadband Speed: Over 50% of homebuyers now consider broadband speed as a key factor when purchasing a home.
  • Bushfire Risk: 38% of buyers are concerned about bushfire risks, surpassing the global benchmark of 15%.
  • Flood Risk: 31% of buyers consider flood risk, exceeding the global benchmark of 23%.

2. Looming Federal Election

• Election Timing: The federal election is expected in late May 2022.
• Investment Behavior: Historically, uncertainty during election campaigns leads to a decrease in major investment decisions.
• Market Conditions:
  • A modest number of homes are listed for sale, but there is still a healthy level of active buyers.
  • Vendors are adjusting price expectations following double-digit annual price growth.

3. Federal Budget and Housing Affordability

• Budget Priorities: The 2022-23 Federal Budget prioritized economic growth over reducing national debt.
• Infrastructure Funding: Over $30 billion was allocated to road, rail, and defense projects.
• Housing Supply: The budget did not provide additional stimulus to increase new home construction, which is critical to addressing the rental crisis.
• Affordability Schemes:
  • First Home Guarantee Scheme: Extended to 35,000 places per year, allowing eligible buyers to purchase with a 5% deposit and no LMI, starting from 1 July 2022.
  • Regional Home Guarantee Scheme: Introduced for 10,000 places per year, targeting regional areas with 5% deposit and no LMI, available from 1 October 2022 to 30 June 2025.
  • Family Home Guarantee: Extended to 5,000 places annually, aimed at single-parent families with a 2% deposit and no LMI, from 1 July 2022 to 30 June 2025.

4. Rising Household Costs and Maintenance Challenges

• Inflation Impact: Rising inflation is increasing the cost of living, putting pressure on household budgets.
• Government Measures:
  • One-off tax offset increases for low and middle-income earners.
  • $250 payment for 6 million welfare recipients, veterans, and concession cardholders.
  • A 22¢ per litre fuel excise cut for six months.
• Maintenance Issues:
  • Difficulty in securing tradespeople for home maintenance and repairs.
  • Many properties are held back for renovation rather than being listed for sale.
  • Construction delays due to supply chain issues are intensifying costs and timelines.

5. Muted Population Growth

• Migration Levels: The Federal Budget did not increase migration levels, which has led to reduced population growth.
• Net Migration Loss: Australia experienced a net loss of 67,300 people from overseas migration in the year to September 2021.
• Population Growth: Growth was driven entirely by natural increase, adding 136,200 people.
• Future Outlook: Skilled migration is expected to increase, which may help alleviate the population growth slowdown.

Market Statistics (as of 31 March 2022)

Contact Information

• Residential Research:
  
  Michelle Ciesielski
  +61290366659
  michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrankoom

• Media Enquiries:
  Caroline Stanley
  +61402170901
  cstanley@gracosway.com.au

Disclaimer

Knight Frank Research Reports are available at knightfrank.com/research.
Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services, and forecasting to a wide range of clients.
This report is for general information only and should not be relied upon in any way.
Reproduction of this report is not allowed without prior written approval.