仲量联行：2022年杂货报告（EN）_8页_4mb

Retail Research Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the U.S. and Canadian grocery retail landscape in 2021, highlighting the industry's resilience and growth during the pandemic, the expansion of major grocers, the rise of online grocery shopping, and the impact of inflation and supply chain issues. It also touches on technological innovations such as "walk-out" technology and the emergence of micro-fulfillment companies. Additionally, it discusses the investment trends in grocery-anchored retail properties and the role of JLL in retail research.

Main Points

1. Grocery Industry Growth

• Growth in Sales: Grocery retailers experienced significant growth, with total sales reaching $803 billion in 2021, a nearly 16.0% increase from pre-pandemic levels.
• Pandemic Impact: Grocery stores were essential during the pandemic, leading to a surge in online grocery sales, which increased by 63.9% in 2020.
• Consumer Behavior: Despite the return to in-store shopping, online grocery sales continued to grow, reaching $122.4 billion in 2021, a 12.3% year-over-year increase.

2. Store Expansion

• Aldi: Opened 88 stores in 2021, adding over 2.2 million square feet. Plans to open 150 new stores by the end of 2022, focusing on the Southeast and Gulf Coast.
• Other Grocers: Publix added 1.3 million square feet in Florida, Grocery Outlet expanded on the West Coast, and Food Lion acquired 71 stores from Southeastern Grocers.
• Small-Format Stores: Aldi, Lidl, and Sprouts expanded their small-format store presence, with average sizes around 25,000 square feet.

3. Technological Innovations

• Walk-Out Technology: Amazon introduced "Just Walk-Out" technology at Whole Foods, allowing customers to pay automatically upon exit.
• Global Adoption: Similar technology was adopted by Lidl (Lidl Go), Tesco (Tesco Go), and Aldi in the U.K., indicating a global trend towards cashierless shopping.

4. Inflation and Supply Chain Issues

• Inflation Rate: The U.S. consumer price index rose by 7.9% in February 2022, the highest since 1982.
• Grocery Inflation: Food at home prices increased by 8.6%, outpacing overall retail inflation. Consumers overestimated the inflation rate, perceiving a 17.7% increase.
• Supply Chain Impact: Port delays and labor shortages contributed to increased costs and shipping delays, likely to continue affecting the industry.

5. Micro-Fulfillment Companies

• Rise of New Players: Companies like Gorillas, Gopuff, JOKR, and Fridge No More emerged as competitors in the last-mile delivery space.
• Business Model: These companies operate from dark stores, using hyperlocal delivery to fulfill orders in under 15 minutes.
• Investment Support: These companies have attracted substantial funding, with JOKR securing $170 million in Series A funding and Gorillas valued at $1 billion.

6. Grocery-Anchored Retail Investments

• Record Transactions: 2021 saw 735 grocery-anchored retail property transactions, a new record, with total acquisition volume exceeding $13.3 billion.
• Cap Rate Compression: Cap rates compressed by nearly 50 bps from 2019 levels, with premium grocery centers maintaining a 4.3% spread over the risk-free rate.
• Investor Trends: Private capital accounted for 67.7% of total volume, while public REITs captured 17.0% of the market share, significantly higher than their overall retail share.

Key Information

• Consumer Preferences: Online grocery shopping remains a key growth area, with e-commerce sales projected to double by 2025.
• Market Recovery: Foot traffic to grocery stores in the U.S. recovered by 8.2% in Q4 2021, showing a shift in consumer behavior that is likely to persist.
• Regional Competition: In Canada, international grocers like T&T Supermarkets and Sungiven Foods are expanding due to the country's diverse immigrant population.
• Investment Focus: Grocery-anchored retail properties are seen as a safe and valuable investment, with continued interest from both domestic and international capital.

Conclusion

The grocery retail industry has shown remarkable adaptability and growth in 2021, driven by both physical and digital expansion. As consumers continue to embrace online shopping, grocers must invest in technology and logistics to stay competitive. Inflation and supply chain challenges remain concerns, but the industry's resilience and evolving business models suggest a strong future.