2025-04-20-麦肯锡-麦肯锡年欧洲杂货零售状况（英）_44页_12mb

报告摘要

The State of Grocery Retail Europe 2025

Executive Summary

Grocery retail in Europe faced mixed conditions in 2024, with moderate sales growth (2.4% overall) driven by inflation and limited differentiation impact. Forward-looking trends indicate sustained low volume growth (~0.2% annually to 2030), increasing private label importance (up to 42% market share), and evolving consumer preferences toward healthy and convenient food. CEOs emphasize cost containment, tech adoption (particularly AI), and private brands as key growth strategies amid persistent margin pressure.

Key Market Dynamics (2024)

Grocery sales growth: +2.4% (slightly above inflation)
Downtrading effect neutralized in 2024 after years of decline
Discounters and private labels巩固 market share (+0.2 pp each from 2023 to 2024)
Foodservice growth (+3.8%) outpaces traditional grocery
Online grocery shows highest channel growth (2.0 pp above average)

Key Trends (2024–2030)

Low Volume Growth: +0.2% annually
Private Brands Expansion: Private label share to reach 40-42% (up 0.3 pp in 2024)
Health Growth: Net intent for healthy eating rises by 7 pp among Gen Z
No-Cook Demand: 77% of Gen Z shoppers purchase food-to-go monthly
Customer Engagement: Personalization could yield 4-6% revenue lift
Sustainability Decline: Consumer intent for eco-friendly products decreases 3 pp
Consolidation Acceleration: Grocery M&A transactions increase 31% (2019–2024)
Tech Leadership Premium: Digital capability leads to 2.9x higher TSR
Retail Media Boom: 20% CAGR for shopping ad spending

Strategic Recommendations

Double Down on Growth Pockets: Focus on ready-to-eat meals, private brands, and healthy foods
Embrace Digital Transformation: Centralize tech, AI, and data capabilities for efficiency
Personalize Customer Experience: Leverage data and AI for loyalty programs tailored to Gen Z
Optimize Supply Chains: Consolidate European operations and enhance logistics

CEO Insights

Marit van Egmond (Albert Heijn): Digital-first transformation, focus on integrated customer experience
Maniele Tasca (Selex): Regional adaptation and investment in local capabilities
Jorma Rauhala (Kesko): Data-driven approach to private labels and retail media growth
Jitse Groen (Just Eat Takeaway.com): Delivery platform scaling requires agile execution

Appendix: Data Highlights

Market Share Shifts: Private labels now 39.1% of total sales (up 0.3 pp YoY)
Generational Trends: Gen Z shows highest intent for healthy and premium products
Tech Adoption: 87% of digital leaders allocate >50% of AI budgets to implementation

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