2018时尚报告（英文版）_43页_4mb

The State of Fashion 2018 Summary

Core Content

The State of Fashion 2018 report provides a comprehensive overview of the global fashion industry, analyzing its current state and forecasting its trajectory for the upcoming year. It highlights the transformative changes reshaping the sector, driven by technological advancements, shifting consumer behavior, and evolving market dynamics. The report is a collaboration between The Business of Fashion (BoF) and McKinsey & Company, combining qualitative insights with quantitative data to offer a nuanced understanding of the fashion ecosystem.

Main Objectives

• To provide a clear understanding of the forces shaping the fashion industry.
• To offer transparency on industry performance and growth.
• To set the agenda for 2018 by identifying key trends and priorities.

Key Themes and Trends

1. Global Economic Shift

• The fashion industry is no longer dominated by Western markets; Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and other emerging regions are becoming major growth drivers.
• By 2018, more than 50% of global apparel and footwear sales will originate outside of Europe and North America.
• Globalisation is not slowing down, despite rising nationalism and reshoring trends. A new phase of globalisation, marked by increased digital connectivity and cross-border trade, is redefining the industry landscape.

2. Consumer Shifts

• Digital adoption is accelerating, with consumers expecting seamless, omnichannel experiences and zero friction in their shopping journey.
• Social media, peer reviews, and influencer marketing are increasingly influencing purchase decisions.
• Millennials are particularly price-sensitive but also value-driven, prioritizing convenience, quality, and alignment with personal values.
• Connected and in control consumers are more likely to switch brands for discounts and expect immediate support and perfect functionality.

3. Changes in the Fashion System

• Digitisation across the value chain is redefining cost structures and operational models.
• Brick-and-mortar traffic is declining, pushing brands to reinvent the in-store experience and adopt direct-to-consumer models.
• Omnichannel integration is becoming a top priority, with many companies focusing on sales and growth improvements over cost-cutting.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being deployed across the value chain, enabling personalisation at scale and data-driven decision-making.
• Sustainability is becoming an integral part of the planning process, with circular economy principles being embedded into operations.
• Data proliferation presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly in privacy and security.

Key Predictions for 2018

• Asia will assert its dominance, driven by innovation and investment, with 60% of global e-commerce unicorns coming from China.
• The fashion industry will face unprecedented disruption, with new business models emerging and traditional players struggling to adapt.
• The performance gap between industry leaders and laggards is widening, with the top 20% of companies contributing 144% of economic profit by 2016.
• Speed and agility will be critical, as companies race to shorten the time from design to shelf, leveraging AI and data analytics to improve responsiveness and customer experience.

Industry Outlook

• The McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI) forecasts global fashion sales to grow by 3.5 to 4.5% in 2018, up from 1.5% in 2016.
• Growth is uneven, with emerging markets showing more optimism and Western markets facing stagnation.
• Leading fashion players are focusing on innovation, digital transformation, and customer-centric models to stay ahead.

Top 10 Trends for 2018

1. Predictably Unpredictable – Geopolitical and economic uncertainty are the new normal.
2. Globalisation Reboot – Cross-border digital trade and connectivity will redefine the global fashion landscape.
3. Asian Trailblazers – Asia is becoming a key driver of innovation and growth.
4. Getting Personal – Personalisation and curation are becoming essential to customer engagement.
5. Platforms First – Fashion brands must now focus on how to collaborate with online platforms.
6. Mobile Obsessed – The entire shopping journey is moving to mobile, changing consumer behavior.
7. AI Gets Real – AI is being integrated into all aspects of the fashion value chain.
8. Sustainability Credibility – Sustainability is evolving from a buzzword to a core part of business strategy.
9. Off-Price Deception – The off-price sector is growing due to its ability to manage excess inventory and slow growth.
10. Startup Thinking – A growing number of fashion companies are adopting startup-like agility and innovation.

Conclusion

2018 is set to be a watershed year for the fashion industry, marked by shifts in power, growth, and innovation. While challenges persist, the opportunities for those willing to embrace change and lead with boldness are significant. The report emphasizes the importance of digital transformation, customer-centricity, and agility in navigating this new era.

Key Contributors

• Imran Amed – Founder and CEO of The Business of Fashion.
• Achim Berg – Leader of McKinsey's Global Apparel, Fashion & Luxury Practice.
• Sara Kappelmäk – Partner at McKinsey, co-leads the Scandinavian Apparel, Fashion & Luxury hub.
• Saskia Hedrich – Senior expert at McKinsey, supports national garment industry development.
• Johanna Andersson – Co-leads the Scandinavian hub, focuses on strategy and digital transformation.
• Martine Drageset – Works with Scandinavian fashion clients on strategy and operations.
• Robb Young – Global markets editor at The Business of Fashion, specializes in emerging markets.

Acknowledgements

The report acknowledges the contributions of industry executives, researchers, and partners, including BoF and McKinsey teams, as well as imaging and design collaborators who helped bring the findings to life.