2017时尚报告（英文版）_48页-4mb

The State of Fashion 2017 Summary

Core Content

The State of Fashion 2017 report by McKinsey & Company and The Business of Fashion (BoF) provides a comprehensive analysis of the global fashion industry, highlighting both its challenges and opportunities in 2016 and forecasting its trajectory for 2017. The report aims to bring clarity and insight into an industry that has traditionally been fragmented and hard to track systematically.

Main Objectives

• To offer a detailed view of the fashion ecosystem, including market segments, product categories, and geographies.
• To present a new benchmark: the McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI), which tracks sales, operating profit, and economic profit across over 450 fashion companies.
• To identify the key trends and challenges that will shape the industry in 2017.

Key Findings from 2016

Industry Performance

• The global fashion industry reached a value of $2.4 trillion in 2016.
• It would rank as the seventh-largest economy if compared to individual countries' GDP.
• Sales growth slowed to 2-3%, down from the previous decade's average of 5.5%.
• Profit margins stagnated, and economic profit declined due to external shocks and internal pressures.

Market Segments and Categories

• Luxury and mid-market segments faced the most difficult conditions, with growth expected at 0.5-1% and 2-2.5%, respectively.
• Watches and jewellery saw a significant slowdown, expected to grow only 1.5-2% in 2016.
• Value and affordable luxury segments are expected to outperform, with growth projected at 3.0-4.0% and 3.5-4.5%, respectively.

Top Challenges

1. Volatility and uncertainty (19% of executives)
2. Competition from online players and decreasing foot traffic (13%)
3. Speed of changing consumer preferences (7%)
4. Margin erosion due to discounting (5%)
5. Sales and profitability growth (5%)
6. Speed to market and changes in the fashion cycle (5%)

Top Opportunities

1. Digitalisation and e-commerce (29%)
2. See-now, buy-now (9%)
3. Mastering the economic downturn (4%)
4. Reducing promotional activity and global pricing (2%)
5. Omnichannel integration (2%)
6. Shaping consumers and tapping into millennials (2%)

10 Trends for 2017

1. Intensifying Volatility
   Geopolitical instability, terrorism, Brexit, and trade issues are increasing uncertainty in the global economy.

2. China's Comeback?
   China's middle and upper classes remain strong, but the economy is slowing. The government's fiscal policies are expected to improve conditions, though uncertainty remains.

3. Urban Engines
   Cities in emerging markets are becoming central to the industry's evolution, surpassing country-based strategies.

4. Shrewder Shoppers
   Consumers are becoming more sophisticated, tech-driven, and harder to predict, requiring brands to adapt to their expectations.

5. Generation Correlation
   Fashion companies must tailor their strategies to serve both millennials and older consumers, recognizing their distinct preferences and lifestyles.

6. The Wellness Dividend
   The wellness movement is creating new opportunities for fashion brands to focus on health, sustainability, and emotional well-being.

7. Changing the Rhythm
   The fashion cycle is accelerating, driven by consumer demand for instant gratification and the rise of "see-now, buy-now" models.

8. Organic Growth
   Companies are shifting focus from geographic expansion to building deeper relationships with existing clients.

9. Upstream Technology
   Digital innovation is improving supply-chain efficiency, reducing procurement costs, and enhancing sourcing opportunities.

10. Ownership Shake-Up
    Fashion conglomerates are expected to focus more on core brands, creating space for private equity and family-owned brands to acquire targets.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges of 2016, the fashion industry remains a key driver of global economic value. The report highlights the importance of digital transformation, sustainability, and agility in navigating the volatile and rapidly changing landscape. As the industry moves into 2017, it has the potential to stabilize and reset, with those who adapt to the new trends likely to emerge as leaders.

Key Contributors

• Imran Amed: Founder, editor-in-chief, and CEO of The Business of Fashion.
• Achim Berg: Co-leads McKinsey's Global Apparel, Fashion & Luxury Practice.
• Leonie Brantberg: Head of McKinsey's fashion work in the UK.
• Saskia Hedrich: Senior expert supporting countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
• Johnattan Leon: Former associate at The Business of Fashion, now working with McKinsey.
• Robb Young: Global markets editor at The Business of Fashion.

Acknowledgements

The report acknowledges the contributions of numerous industry leaders, executives, and experts, including:

• Princess Deena Aljuhani Abdulaziz, Avery Baker, Angelica Cheung, Laurent Claquin, Colin Henry, Tommy Hilfiger, John Hooks, Andrew Keith, Daniel Lalonde, Daniel Lopez, Karla Martinez, Natalie Massenet, Alexander Pavlov, François-Henri Pinault, Nadja Swarovski, Mimma Vilezio, Jason Wachob, and David Zhao.
• Jörn Kupper, Kate Smaje, Richard Dobbs, Greg Kelly, and the entire team at BoF and McKinsey.

Additional Notes

• The report includes executive interviews and deep dives on topics such as Russia's fashion market, digital supply chain transformation, and new consumer capitals in China, the Middle East, and Latin America.
• The McKinsey Global Fashion Index is introduced as a new benchmark for industry performance.