全球发展中心-官方援助流动的未来（英）-2023.11-21页_482kb

报告摘要

The report addresses the substantial financing gaps for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and addressing climate change. Estimated annual funding needs range from $2.5 to $4+ trillion by 2030, with ODA alone deemed insufficient.
Concerns exist about the feasibility of these investments and the risk of increasing focus on climate-related aid, potentially shifting away from basic needs.

ODA Projections: Under a mid-growth scenario with historic donors, ODA could double by 2050 (e.g., from $162 billion in 2019 to $323 billion). However, aid volumes may stagnate or decline in lower-growth and "aid fatigue" scenarios.
Emerging Donors: Including more high-income countries could significantly increase aid volumes, with China potentially becoming a top donor by 2050.
FID and MFID: Similar trends are observed in finance for international development and multilateral aid, but growth depends on donor generosity and economic conditions.

Aid allocation shifts toward middle-income and upper-middle-income countries due to population and income growth, reducing the share for low-income nations.
Climate change drives increased aid to low-carbon infrastructure, primarily benefiting wealthier developing countries.

Climate aid is projected to rise in share (e.g., to 35% of ODA by 2030), while humanitarian aid increases from 10% to 14% by 2019. Other development sectors face reduced funding.
Aid quality is deteriorating, with declining country-programmable aid (now about one-third of total ODA), and risks include inflated ODA figures from accounting changes.

Overall, forecasted aid volumes are insufficient to meet trillions in development needs, especially given limits on donor generosity and growth.
There is a strong need to improve the concentration of aid on the world's poorest countries, protect multilateral institutions like IDA, and enhance donor commitments through mechanisms such as increased immigration support and better policy focus.

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