麦肯锡BOF-2017年时尚报告（英文）-2016-48页-4mb

The State of Fashion 2017 Summary

Core Content

The State of Fashion 2017 report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global fashion industry, focusing on its performance in 2016 and forecasting its outlook for 2017. The report aims to address the fragmented and unreliable nature of industry data by combining qualitative and quantitative insights from McKinsey & Company and The Business of Fashion (BoF). It outlines the key challenges, opportunities, and trends shaping the fashion sector, offering a structured view of the industry's current state and future direction.

Main Points

Industry Performance in 2016

• The global fashion industry reached a total value of $2.4 trillion in 2016.
• If ranked by GDP, it would be the seventh-largest economy in the world.
• The year was marked by uncertainty, change, and challenge, with 67% of executives reporting worsened conditions.
• Sales growth slowed to 2-3%, down from 5.5% annually over the previous decade.
• Luxury and mid-market segments faced particular difficulties, with growth rates below the industry average.
• Watches and jewellery saw a significant slowdown, expected to grow at 1.5-2% in 2016, down from 11% between 2005 and 2015.

Key Challenges

• Global volatility: Geopolitical instability, terrorism, Brexit, and trade issues increased uncertainty.
• Consumer shifts: Demand for discounts and promotions became the norm, with full-price sales declining.
• Changing consumer behavior: Consumers are more discerning, technology-savvy, and unpredictable.
• Supply chain pressures: Increased speed to market and overstocking issues plagued the industry.
• Cost pressures: Sourcing alone is no longer sufficient to cut costs; restructuring and job cuts became necessary.

Opportunities

• Digital transformation: E-commerce and "see-now, buy-now" models are reshaping the industry.
• Sustainable innovation: Ethical and sustainable practices are becoming a priority for both consumers and brands.
• Emerging markets: China, India, and the UAE are highlighted as key growth regions, though China's growth slowed.
• Urban centres: Cities in new markets are becoming central to the industry's evolution.
• Local growth: Brands are focusing on organic growth through deeper relationships with existing customers.

Key Trends for 2017

1. Intensifying Volatility

   • Political and economic instability continues to create uncertainty.
   • Geopolitical events and macroeconomic shifts are expected to persist.

2. China's Comeback?

   • China's growth remains strong, but its market faces challenges like stock market dips and real estate concerns.
   • Consumers are becoming more selective, prioritizing lifestyle services and premium products.

3. Urban Engines

   • City-based strategies are becoming more important than country-based ones.
   • Emerging wealthy cities in China, the Middle East, and Latin America are key growth drivers.

4. Shrewder Shoppers

   • Consumers are more informed and tech-savvy, requiring brands to be more agile and responsive.

5. Generation Correlation

   • Brands must cater to both millennials and older consumers, offering diverse and inclusive product lines.

6. The Wellness Dividend

   • The wellness movement is influencing fashion, with brands exploring ways to align with health and wellness trends.

7. Changing the Rhythm

   • The fashion cycle is accelerating, leading to a creativity crisis and increased pressure for instant gratification.

8. Organic Growth

   • Companies are shifting focus from geographic expansion to building deeper relationships with existing customers.

9. Upstream Technology

   • Digital innovation is transforming supply chain efficiency, procurement, and sourcing opportunities.

10. Ownership Shake-Up

    • Fashion conglomerates are streamlining their brand portfolios, creating space for private equity and family-owned brands to acquire assets.

Outlook for 2017

• The fashion industry is expected to see glimmers of recovery.
• Macro indicators suggest a slight improvement, with GDP growth forecasts at 3.4% compared to 3.1% in 2016.
• Sales growth is projected to rise from 2-2.5% in 2016 to 2.5-3.5% in 2017.
• Value and affordable luxury are expected to outperform the industry average.
• Athletic wear remains the strongest category, with growth of 6.5-7.5%.
• The digital shift continues to be a major opportunity, with e-commerce and "see-now, buy-now" models gaining traction.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for fashion brands to adapt to a rapidly changing and increasingly volatile environment. With the introduction of the McKinsey Global Fashion Index (MGFI), the industry now has a more systematic way to measure performance across segments, categories, and regions. The insights provided aim to guide leaders in navigating the complexities of the fashion ecosystem and capitalizing on emerging trends for long-term success.