2025-05-28-Jefferies-美国食品-自有品牌追踪_自有品牌增长是否放缓_15页_1mb

报告摘要

U.S. Food Private Label Market Analysis (May 28, 2025 Report)

Key Findings

Overall Market Trend

Private Label Growth: Private label volume share increased by approximately 33% in 43% of the 75 tracked food categories in the last 4 weeks (L4W) compared to the prior year-on-year period. Category volumes grew in 28% of tracked categories.

Top Performing Categories (Share Gains)

Dessert Bars: +422bps
Cupcakes/Paper Cups: +361bps
Espresso: +336bps
Bacon: +235bps
Meat Alternatives: +202bps

Major Declines

Health/Nutrition Powder: Down 606bps
Hot Cereal & Cake: Significant declines (–347bps, –326bps)
Other Sweet Snacks & Whipped Topping: Declined by 265bps and 260bps respectively

Leading Companies by PL Share Gains

SJ-Mark and KHC saw the highest weighted average share gains in the L4W period ending May 17, 2025:

SJ-Mark: +102bps
KHC: +40bps
CAG: +33bps
CPB: +15bps

Estimated Market Share

PL Volume Exposure by Company

Company	Avg PL Volume Share	Change (Yr/Y)
B&G Foods	~33%	+31 bps
Kraft Heinz	~23%	+106 bps
General Mills	~15%	+23 bps

PL Share by Product Subcategory

Product Category	PL Volume Share	Y/Y Change (bps)
Cooking Oil	~22%	+88 bps
Health/nutr. powder	~10%	-606bps
Hot Cereal	~15%	-347bps

Company-Specific Highlights (Summary)

SJ-Mark

Top Gains in Coffee (+113 bps), Dog Food (+166 bps), Sandwiches (+87 bps).
Mixed results but overall growth driven by key snacks and coffee segments.

Post Holdings

Research indicates significant gains in health/fitness cereals, with positive PL growth linked to meal-prep trends.

Hain Celestial

Heavy discounting in health/nutr. powder, but strong hold among specialty snacks and dairy solids.

Valuation Summary

Ticker	Rating	Price
KHC	HOLD	$26.83
SJM	HOLD	$113.93
K	HOLD	$82.50
SMPL	BUY	$34.90
OTLY	BUY	$11.06
Post Holdings	BUY	$109.80

Overall Market Insights

Growth Deceleration in Expected Returns

Return Category	Performance Note
Buy Ratings	Slower than average returns expected
Hold Ratings	Maintain moderate acceptance
Small-Cap Valuations	Parts may see higher volatility

Investment Risks

Companies with high exposure to declining trends (e.g., Health/Nutrition) face significant PL share erosion.
Discrepancy in performance across companies remains notable, as evidenced by the divergent growth outcomes in the tracking data.

Conclusion

The data shows private label continuing to gain volume in several snack, meal-ready, and convenience-oriented categories, while traditional health and fiber-based items face headwinds. Leading companies like SJ-Mark, Kraft Heinz, and Post Holdings show strong positions in growing segments, but firms with exposure to fading categories may face de-risking in select sectors.

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