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US Spirits – De-premiumisation Tracker May 2025

Core Content Summary

This report provides an analysis of the US spirits market trends for the four weeks ending 17 May 2025, highlighting the dynamics between distilled spirits and Ready-to-Drink (RTD) products. It outlines the current state of the industry, key category performances, and the role of premiumisation and de-premiumisation in shaping market growth.

Main Points

• Industry Growth: The US distilled spirits industry is growing below its long-term trend, with a value growth of approximately 3% in 2024. This is attributed to the drag from RTD growth and inflationary pressures.
• RTD Impact: RTDs continue to drive industry growth, which masks the pockets of premiumisation within distilled spirits. RTD growth has slowed, which may provide more room for spirits to return to historical growth rates.
• Premiumisation Trends: Premiumisation remains a long-term structural driver, although it paused in 2023-2024. Premium single malts are now leading growth in Scotch, while premium American whiskey brands like Colonel Taylor and Woodford are driving growth in the category.
• Downtrading: Downtrading is evident in categories like vodka and rum, with affordable brands like Tito's and New Amsterdam gaining traction. However, premiumisation is still visible in whisk(e)y, tequila, and gin.
• Market Share Shifts: There has been a shift in market share toward smaller pack sizes (under 375ml), indicating a move toward value-focused consumption. Some premium brands, like Don Julio and Crown Royal Blackberry, are still outperforming.
• Key Brands:
  • Tequila: Don Julio is a key growth driver, while Patron and Casamigos are experiencing declines.
  • Scotch: Premium single malts like Highland Park are leading growth, and Jameson has stabilized.
  • American Whiskey: Premium brands like Colonel Taylor and Blanton are contributing to growth, while Jack Daniel's is declining.
  • Vodka: New Amsterdam and Tito's are leading growth, with SKYY, Grey Goose, and Absolut lagging.
  • RTDs: Buzzballz and Cutwater are driving RTD growth, with Surfside and Sun Cruiser also contributing.
  • Rum: Brands like Captain Morgan and Malibu are declining.
• Economic Factors: Inflation and economic moderation are affecting consumer behavior, with a focus on smaller packs and off-trade channels.
• Nielsen Data Limitations: Nielsen data represents only 16-17% of the spirits market and may not fully reflect on-trade or independent retailers.

Key Information

• Price/Mix Trends (April 19 - May 17, 2025):

  • Tequila: +0.7% (vs +0.6% previous)
  • American Whiskey: +1.7% (vs +2.3% previous)
  • Scotch: +2.2% (vs +1.4% previous)
  • Canadian Whisky: +1.6% (vs -0.1% previous)
  • Irish Whiskey: -0.5% (vs -1.1% previous)
  • Cognac: -2.7% (vs -1.9% previous)
  • Brandy: +0.7% (vs +0.5% previous)
  • Vodka: +1.0% (vs +0.9% previous)
  • Gin: +2.1% (vs +2.6% previous)
  • Rum: +0.1% (vs -0.2% previous)
  • RTDs: +0.6% (vs +0.8% previous)
  • Cordials: -0.6% (vs -0.2% previous)
  • Industry: -2.9% (vs -2.7% previous)

• Market Share Changes (May 17, 2025):

  • Tequila: 12.6% (down from 12.7%)
  • American Whiskey: 16.2% (down from 16.7%)
  • Scotch: 2.2% (down from 2.4%)
  • Canadian Whisky: 10.1% (down from 10.3%)
  • Irish Whiskey: 2.0% (stable)
  • Cognac: 2.7% (down from 3.1%)
  • Brandy: 1.3% (down from 1.4%)
  • Vodka: 21.4% (down from 22.1%)
  • Gin: 2.1% (down from 2.2%)
  • Rum: 5.2% (down from 5.7%)
  • RTDs: 16.3% (up from 13.7%)
  • Liqueurs: 6.3% (up from 6.1%)

Summary of Category Analysis

• Tequila: Continued growth, driven by Don Julio. Some signs of moderation and downtrading are visible.
• Scotch: Volume growth is weak, but price/mix remains strong. Premium single malts are leading growth.
• Gin: Price/mix is a positive driver, but there is a risk of downtrading to vodka in a consumer squeeze.
• Vodka: Growth is negative, with downtrading towards affordable brands like New Amsterdam and Tito's.
• American Whiskey: Premium brands like Colonel Taylor and Blanton are driving growth, while mainstream brands like Jack Daniel's are declining.
• Canadian Whisky: Crown Royal Blackberry is showing signs of softening.
• Irish Whiskey: Jameson has stabilized, while other brands are underperforming.
• Cognac: Performance is subdued, with continued promotional activity.
• Rum: Continued decline, with Captain Morgan and Malibu leading the way.
• RTDs: Growth is driven by Buzzballz and Cutwater, with other brands like Surfside and Sun Cruiser contributing.

Risk of Downtrading

• Within Categories: Traditional downtrading from expensive to cheap brands is occurring.
• Across Categories: Consumers may shift from premium categories like cognac to cheaper ones like brandy or vodka/rum.
• Pack Format Shifts: There is a trend toward smaller packs to reduce costs and increase affordability.
• Private Label: Private label sales could increase, especially if consumers seek more affordable options.

Conclusion

The US spirits market is experiencing a period of correction following the reset from pandemic-era growth. While RTDs continue to drive overall industry growth, they are masking the underlying premiumisation in certain categories. The report suggests that as inflationary pressures ease and RTD growth moderates, the spirits industry may return to its historical growth trajectory. Key brands in premium segments are still driving growth, but there are signs of downtrading in more affordable segments. The trend toward smaller packs and off-trade channels indicates a shift in consumer behavior, with spirits being viewed as an affordable luxury.