2025-05-28-Jefferies-印度汽车_5月销量估计_6页_213kb
报告摘要
Summary of India Autos: May Volume Estimates
Core Content
This document provides an analysis of the estimated wholesale vehicle volumes for Indian auto OEMs in May 2025, alongside investment recommendations and related disclosures. It outlines the performance trends across different segments and companies, including 2-wheelers (2Ws), 3-wheelers (3Ws), commercial vehicles, and passenger vehicles (PVs). The report also includes valuation methodologies, investment ratings, and risk factors associated with the recommended stocks.
Main Points
May Volume Estimates
Indian auto OEMs are expected to report May 2025 wholesale volumes soon. The performance across segments is mixed:
- 2Ws: Growth of +5% YoY, with a MoM decline of -1%.
- Tractors: Flat YoY.
- Trucks and PVs: Declined by 6-8% YoY.
The estimated YoY growth for the companies is as follows:
- EIM (Eicher Motors): +13-23% YoY
- MM (Mahindra & Mahindra): +2-4% YoY
- TVSL (TVS Motor): +2-4% YoY
- BJAUT (Bajaj Auto): +3% YoY
- HMCL (Hero MotoCorp): +2% YoY
- MSIL (Maruti Suzuki): +2% YoY
- AL (Ashok Leyland): -1% YoY
- HYUNDAI (Hyundai India): -4% YoY
- TTMT (Tata Motors): -1-5% YoY
The preferred picks among the auto sector are MM, EIM, and TVSL.
Exhibit 1: Wholesale Volume Breakdown
| Company | 2Ws (Units) | 3Ws (Units) | Total Volumes (Units) | YoY Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bajaj Auto | 315,000 | 50,000 | 365,000 | +3% |
| Hero MotoCorp | - | - | 520,000 | +4% |
| TVS Motor | 413,000 | 13,000 | 426,000 | +15% |
| Eicher Motors | 87,000 | 7,250 | 94,250 | +23% |
| Maruti Suzuki | - | - | 178,000 | +2% |
| Hyundai India | 46,000 | 15,000 | 61,000 | -4% |
| Mahindra & Mahindra | 82,850 | - | 123,350 | +13% |
| Tata Motors | - | - | 73,000 | -5% |
| Ashok Leyland | - | - | 14,500 | -1% |
Exhibit 2: 2Ws Leading in Registration Growth
The report highlights that 2Ws led in registration growth in May, indicating strong demand in this segment.
Investment Recommendations
- BUY: EIM, MM, MSIL, TVSL
- HOLD: BJAUT, HMCL, HYUNDAI, TTMT, AL
- UNDERPERFORM: HMCL, HYUNDAI, TTMT
Key Stocks
- Eicher Motors (EIM): +23% YoY growth in Royal Enfield, +15% in Commercial Vehicles, and is recommended as a BUY.
- Mahindra & Mahindra (MM): +16% in Autos and +9% in Tractors, recommended as a BUY.
- TVS Motor (TVSL): +15% in 2Ws and +26% in 3Ws, recommended as a BUY.
- Maruti Suzuki (MSIL): +2% YoY in total volumes, recommended as a BUY.
- Bajaj Auto (BJAUT): +3% YoY in 2Ws, recommended as a HOLD.
- Hero MotoCorp (HMCL): +4% YoY in total volumes, recommended as a HOLD.
- Hyundai India (HYUNDAI): -6% YoY in Domestic volumes, recommended as an UNDERPERFORM.
- Tata Motors (TTMT): -5% YoY in total volumes, recommended as an UNDERPERFORM.
- Ashok Leyland (AL): -1% YoY in total volumes, recommended as a HOLD.
Valuation Methodology
Jefferies uses a range of valuation methodologies to assign ratings, including:
- Market capitalization
- Maturity
- Growth/value
- Volatility
- Expected total return over the next 12 months
Ratings are based on analyses of market risk, growth rate, revenue streams, and financial metrics such as DCF, EBITDA, EPS, and EV/EBITDA.
Investment Risk and Disclaimer
The report highlights the following key risks:
- Market Risk: Fluctuations in economic, financial, and political factors may impact the performance of the financial instruments.
- Currency Risk: Investors in securities denominated in non-US currencies may face exchange rate fluctuations.
- Conflict of Interest: Jefferies may have business relationships with the companies discussed, which could affect the objectivity of the report.
- No Investment Advice: The report is not tailored to individual investors and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions.
Other Important Disclosures
- The report is prepared by Jefferies entities and may be subject to different legal requirements in various jurisdictions.
- The information is not reviewed or endorsed by any regulatory authority.
- Jefferies does not assume responsibility for the investment decisions made by recipients based on this report.
- The report may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to change based on new information or market conditions.
Distribution and Jurisdictional Notes
- The report is distributed by Jefferies India Private Limited, which is a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC.
- In some jurisdictions, the report is intended for professional or institutional investors only.
- Jefferies does not provide personalized or tailored research, and all recommendations are based on general market analysis.
Analyst Certifications
- All views expressed in the report are based on the personal opinions of the analysts.
- No part of the analysts' compensation is directly tied to the specific recommendations in the report.
- Analysts are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to the restrictions outlined in FINRA Rule 2241.
Summary of Ratings Distribution
| Rating | Count | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| BUY | 2105 | 60.44% |
| HOLD | 1225 | 35.17% |
| UNDERPERFORM | 153 | 4.39% |
Conclusion
The report provides an overview of the expected performance of Indian auto OEMs in May 2025, with a focus on 2Ws showing the strongest growth. The preferred investment picks are Eicher Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, and TVS Motor, all rated BUY. The report also includes important disclosures regarding the methodology, risks, and legal considerations associated with the investment recommendations. Investors are advised to consider this report as one of many factors in their decision-making process.
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