UNDP-NDC洞察系列（英）-2025.4_20页_8mb

NDC Insights Series - Issue No. 3 Summary

Core Content

This issue of the NDC Insights Series highlights the role of energy as a central pillar in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. It outlines the progress made in NDC implementation and preparation, identifies key gaps, and explores opportunities for increasing ambition and accelerating climate action.

Main Points

Global Trends in NDC Preparation

• 20 Parties have submitted new NDCs for the 2025 cycle as of 30 April 2025.
• Kenya submitted its NDC in April, marking the only submission during the month.
• Many countries are adopting inclusive and transparent processes, including public consultations and comment periods on draft NDCs.
• Montenegro has submitted a more comprehensive and robust NDC, aligning with its National Energy and Climate Plan and EU standards.

Energy Transition in NDCs

• 100% of countries reference renewable energy in their NDCs.
• 95% reference energy efficiency.
• 89% outline policy measures for expanding renewable energy and improving energy efficiency.
• 63% include measures for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
• 37% have specific targets for these transitions.

Key Recommendations from Implementation Stocktakes

• Insights from stocktaking exercises are crucial for informing new NDC targets and policy measures.
• Zambia has implemented tax exemptions for renewable energy products and established a solar center of excellence.
• Liberia has allocated 52% of its NDC implementation funding to the energy sector.
• Data quality, monitoring, and control systems are major challenges in the energy sector for many countries.

Global Energy Transition Momentum

• Clean energy investments have reached record levels, outpacing fossil fuel investments.
• Renewable energy capacity globally reached a record 4,448 GW in 2024, representing over 90% of total power capacity expansion.
• Global clean energy investment reached $2.1 trillion in 2024.
• Despite progress, fossil fuels still dominate the energy mix, accounting for 70% of global energy supply as of 2024.
• Energy efficiency improvement is not keeping pace with the required rate of 1% annually.

Geographic Disparities in Energy Transition

• Developed countries and some emerging economies are leading in renewable energy deployment.
• Developing countries, especially LDCs, SIDS, and African nations, face significant challenges in accessing affordable financing, infrastructure development, and supportive policies.
• Africa's renewable energy investment accounts for just 2% of the global total.

Alignment with the Global Stocktake (GST)

• Countries are responding to the GST's call for greater energy ambition, with 89% outlining specific policy measures.
• 84% have quantified targets for expanding renewables, primarily in electricity generation.
• 37% have set measurable energy efficiency targets.
• 63% have identified policy measures for transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Key Areas of Focus

1. Tripling Renewable Energy Capacity by 2030

• IRENA estimates that global renewable electricity generation capacity must triple from 3,391 GW in 2022 to 11,174 GW in 2030.
• 89% of countries have set targets for expanding renewable energy in electricity generation.
• SIDS are showing strong leadership in raising renewable energy ambition, while G20 countries are more measured in their commitments.

2. Doubling Energy Efficiency by 2030

• COP28 set a goal to double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency progress to 4% by 2030.
• 89% of countries have identified specific policy measures to improve energy efficiency, including efficient buildings, appliances, and electrification.
• Zimbabwe and Brazil have set ambitious energy efficiency targets in their NDCs.

3. Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels

• IEA outlines the need to reduce methane emissions by 75% by 2030, fossil fuel demand by 25% by 2030 and 80% by 2050, and emissions from road transport.
• 40% of countries with new NDCs include quantified targets for fossil fuel phase-out, mostly from developed economies.
• Uruguay and Ecuador have set ambitious targets for reducing HFC emissions, aligning with long-term decarbonization strategies.

Sectoral Assessment and Policy Coherence

• Countries are conducting sectoral assessments to identify energy use patterns, emissions drivers, and data gaps.
• Policy coherence is emphasized, with alignment to SDG 7, long-term strategies, and energy transition plans.
• Quantifiable and time-bound targets are encouraged, informed by scenario-based modelling and consultative processes.

Costing and Financing

• Nepal has conducted a comprehensive costing analysis for its energy sector.
• Linking NDC energy actions with national financing processes, budgets, and project pipelines is essential for investment readiness.
• Engagement with international and local financial institutions and the private sector is recommended.

Conclusion

The NDC Insights Series Issue No. 3 underscores the growing importance of energy in climate action, highlighting both the progress made and the challenges that remain. It calls for increased ambition, inclusive processes, and robust financing to ensure a just and equitable global energy transition.