UNDP-NDC洞察系列（英）-2025.3_16页_3mb

NDC Insights Series - Issue No. 2 Summary

Core Content

The NDC Insights Series Issue No. 2, published in March 2025, focuses on adaptation and the alignment between National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It highlights the progress made in NDC preparation and emphasizes the importance of integrating adaptation strategies into national climate action plans. The report also features Cuba as a case study, showcasing how a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) is leveraging NAPs to enhance its NDC and promote climate resilience.

Main Points

NDC Submission Status

• As of 31 March 2025, 19 countries have submitted NDCs, representing 20.5% of global GHG emissions.
• Zambia becomes the first Least Developed Country (LDC) to submit a NDC in the 2025 cycle.
• If all remaining anticipated NDCs are submitted by COP30, coverage will reach 96.2% of global GHG emissions.
• Brazil, as the host of COP30, is driving regional momentum in the Latin America and the Caribbean.

Key Trends in NDC Preparation

• Policy coherence and whole-of-society approaches are prioritized in NDC development.
• 87% of supported countries are aligning NDCs with national development plans and global policy instruments like the Rio Conventions.
• 80% of supported countries are enhancing gender equality and social inclusion through stakeholder engagement and capacity-building.
• 77% of countries are conducting sectoral analyses and setting adaptation targets.
• 60% of countries are strengthening financial aspects of NDCs, including costings and carbon market mechanisms.
• 52% of countries are assessing progress on current NDC implementation to identify gaps and opportunities for increased ambition.

NAP-NDC Alignment

Benefits of Alignment

• Reduces planning burden and increases efficiency.
• Strengthens the investment case for adaptation.
• Increases visibility and political support for climate action.
• Facilitates coordinated financing strategies and complementary project pipelines.

Indicators of Effectiveness

• Integrated planning and coherent policy cycles.
• Harmonized governance and institutional coordination.
• Robust adaptation analysis through NAP processes.
• Shared assessments and unified data systems.
• Consistent messaging at the highest political level.

Examples

• Bhutan achieved harmonized governance and integrated planning between NAP and NDC processes.
• Ecuador used NAP data to secure funding from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) for early warning systems.
• Côte d'Ivoire is using its NAP to inform the adaptation component of its new NDC.
• Uruguay has developed a National Climate Change Response System (SNRCC) to strengthen coherence between NAP and NDC.

Adaptation in the 2025 Submission Cycle

• 13 out of 19 submitted NDCs have enhanced the adaptation component.
• 6 countries have opted to communicate adaptation goals in a separate instrument.
• Adaptation is a top priority for LDCs and SIDS, where it is central to their climate strategies.
• Countries are using NAPs to assess the impact of implemented NDC measures and identify co-benefits.

UNDP's Role in NDC and NAP Support

• UNDP is the largest provider of technical support for adaptation planning, assisting over 50 countries.
• 38 of 62 submitted NAPs have received UNDP support, including 21 from LDCs and SIDS.
• UNDP provides technical assistance to over 80 countries in developing more ambitious and higher-quality NDCs.

Country Spotlight: Cuba

• Cuba's third NDC demonstrates increased mitigation ambition and continues to center adaptation as a national priority.
• The NDC includes ambitious renewable energy targets, aiming for 26% of energy mix by 2035 and 100% by 2050.
• Forest ecosystems are emphasized, with a goal to increase forest coverage to 33% of its territory by 2030.
• The NDC aligns with Cuba's State Plan for Climate Management ("Tarea Vida") and its ongoing NAP process.
• A just transition section highlights the impact of climate change on vulnerable groups and promotes green livelihoods and "One Health" vision.
• The NDC includes quantified indicators, baseline data, implementation timelines, and cost estimates to improve feasibility.

Unlocking Adaptation Finance

• Costed NAPs and NDC adaptation components are critical for attracting adaptation finance.
• The global adaptation finance gap is estimated between $187 billion and $359 billion annually.
• Bangladesh has aligned its NAP and NDC, integrating climate-resilient infrastructure and agriculture into its public financial systems.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina is leveraging municipal financing strategies to access climate finance from institutions like the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
• Cambodia and Mozambique are using sectoral NAPs to guide NDC development and access funding from the Adaptation Fund and private sector partnerships.

Conclusion

The 2025 NDC cycle shows increased momentum and policy alignment between NDCs and NAPs. This synergy is crucial for scaling up adaptation investment, improving implementation feasibility, and enhancing climate resilience. UNDP plays a key role in supporting countries to integrate adaptation into their climate strategies, ensuring policy coherence, financial viability, and inclusive development.