世界银行-印尼煤炭转型脆弱性的空间分析（英）-2025.8_40页_3mb

Summary of "Spatial Analysis of Coal Transition Vulnerability in Indonesia"

Core Content

This working paper presents a spatial analysis of coal transition vulnerability in Indonesia, focusing on the socioeconomic impacts of reducing coal dependence. It combines quantitative data with qualitative insights from stakeholder consultations and interviews to develop a Coal Transition Vulnerability Index (CTVI). The CTVI assesses vulnerability through three key dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The study identifies geographically concentrated vulnerability, particularly in provinces like East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra, due to their heavy reliance on coal mining and coal-fired power generation.

Main Points

• Coal's Economic Importance: Indonesia is the world's sixth-largest coal reserves holder, with coal contributing significantly to energy production, GDP, and exports. It accounts for 63% of energy production, with 67% of coal production exported to countries like China and India.

• Policy Context: Indonesia has committed to a just transition toward renewable energy, including the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), which aims to increase renewable energy to 31% by 2050. However, the National Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) sets a more modest target of 35% renewable energy by 2034, indicating a slower transition timeline than initially envisioned.

• Coal Sector Characteristics: The coal sector is relatively young, with 435 operating mines and 90 coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). The domestic coal fleet is also young, with 30 GW of capacity in Java alone. This makes early retirement of CFPPs challenging due to capital recovery and grid reliability concerns.

• CTVI Framework: The Coal Transition Vulnerability Index (CTVI) is a composite index that evaluates:

  • Exposure: Proximity to coal mines and plants, production levels, and projected changes.
  • Sensitivity: Employment levels, income and profit contributions, GRDP, and the number of coal-dependent villages.
  • Adaptive Capacity: Economic diversification, HDI, IPD, and demographic factors like the age dependency ratio.

• Regional Vulnerability Patterns:

  • East Kalimantan and South Kalimantan are identified as the most vulnerable provinces due to high exposure and sensitivity.
  • South Sumatra faces dual exposure from both coal mining and power generation.
  • Papua emerges as vulnerable despite not being a traditional coal-producing region, due to limited economic diversification and low adaptive capacity.
  • Regency-level analysis reveals Kutai Kartanegara, Kutai Timur, Tanah Bumbu, and Tanah Laut as the most vulnerable areas.

• Socioeconomic Impacts:

  • The transition could lead to job losses, especially among formal and informal workers.
  • Vulnerable groups, including women, youth, indigenous communities, and informal workers, are likely to be disproportionately affected.
  • Indirect employment in sectors like transportation, logistics, and support services is also at risk.

• Need for Inclusive Strategies: The paper emphasizes the importance of tailored and inclusive policies to support affected communities. It suggests the need for early engagement, transition planning, and targeted interventions to ensure a just and equitable transition.

Key Information

• CTVI Calculation: The index was calculated for 28 provinces, 90 regencies, and 15 cities. It was also applied to three case studies at the district level, though data limitations at this level pose challenges.

• Data Sources:

  • Exposure: Global Coal Mine Tracker (GEM), Global Coal Plant Tracker (GEM), and Wood Mackenzie.
  • Sensitivity: Mining Statistics, BPS (Statistics Indonesia), and Podes (Village Potential Statistics).
  • Adaptive Capacity: Census data, HDI, IPD, and economic diversity indicators.

• Challenges of Transition:

  • Mine closures and job losses are expected to occur rapidly.
  • Alternative employment and infrastructure development require long-term efforts.
  • The transition timeline is influenced by both domestic and international market dynamics.

• Implications for Policy:

  • The need for inclusive strategies is highlighted to address uneven impacts across regions and social groups.
  • Economic diversification and improved adaptive capacity are essential to mitigate the risks of coal phase-down.
  • Stakeholder engagement and local consultation are critical to designing effective transition policies.

Conclusion

The study underscores that coal transition in Indonesia is not uniform, with significant regional disparities in vulnerability. It calls for targeted support, policy engagement, and inclusive planning to ensure a smooth and equitable transition. The CTVI serves as a valuable tool for identifying vulnerable regions and informing strategic interventions to support affected communities.