【世界银行】也门气候和健康脆弱性评估-2025_66页_7mb

Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report, Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessment (CHVA), evaluates the impact of climate change on health in The Republic of Yemen. It highlights the country's vulnerability to climate-related health risks and outlines the adaptive capacity and proposed actions to mitigate these effects.

Main Points

Climate Overview

• The Republic of Yemen is located in the southwest of the Arabian Peninsula and has diverse topography, with limited water and agricultural resources.
• The country is divided into 21 governorates and one capital territory, with significant climatic variability across regions.
• The mean annual temperature increased by 0.42°C per decade between 1971 and 2020.
• Under SSP3-7.0, temperatures are projected to rise by +0.76°C (2020–2039) and +1.64°C (2040–2059) compared to the historical mean of 25.40°C (1995–2014).
• Annual precipitation is expected to increase by 35.95% by mid-century, with the largest increases in the Al Mahwit governorate (24.00 mm increase in 5-day max precipitation).
• The Al Hudaydah governorate has seen the largest decrease in precipitation (34.46 mm per decade) between 1971 and 2020.
• Sea-level rise is expected to impact coastal areas, with Aden projected to see a rise of 0.22 m by 2050 and 0.67 m by 2100.

Climate-Related Health Risks

• The country faces six primary climate-related health risks:

  1. Nutrition and Food Insecurity Risks
  2. Waterborne Diseases (WBDs)
  3. Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs)
  4. Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality
  5. Direct Exposure to Floods
  6. Flood Risks for Health Infrastructure

• Heat-related risks are expected to increase significantly, with WBGT > 35°C days projected to rise from 28.40 days (2040–2059) to 109.04 days annually.

• Flood risks are expected to increase, especially in coastal and low-lying areas, with 15 cm floodwater depth projected to affect Al Mahwit, Al Hudaydah, and Taizz.

• Droughts and groundwater depletion are also major concerns, with the Ma'rib governorate being the most affected. Water scarcity is exacerbated by climate change and unsustainable groundwater extraction.

• Sea-level rise threatens coastal infrastructure and water sources, with Aden projected to face USD2 billion in damages from a 0.6 m rise.

Vulnerable Populations

• Over 4 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) live in Yemen, with 75% being women.
• IDPs are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat, floods, water scarcity, and climate-sensitive diseases.
• Women and children are disproportionately affected by water scarcity due to their role as primary water collectors, increasing exposure to gender-based violence.

Key Information

• Climate Hazards: Extreme temperatures, floods, droughts, and sea-level rise are the primary climate-related hazards.
• Health Impacts: Climate change is expected to worsen non-communicable diseases (NCDs), vector-borne diseases (VBDs), waterborne diseases (WBDs), and heat-related illnesses.
• Economic Impact: The World Bank estimates that climate-related health impacts could have significant economic costs, especially with rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns.
• Adaptive Capacity: The country's adaptive capacity is limited, with weak leadership, inadequate health information systems, limited health service delivery, and insufficient health financing.
• Proposed Actions: The report suggests enhancing leadership and governance, improving health information systems, strengthening health service delivery, and increasing health financing. It also calls for further research on climate health risks and adaptation strategies.

Annexes and Methodology

• Annex A provides the methodology used for the assessment, including climate modeling and economic valuation.
• Annex B outlines the population exposed to extreme temperatures.
• Annex C lists the districts with more than 30% of health facilities at risk of flooding.

Conclusion

The Republic of Yemen is highly vulnerable to climate change, with significant implications for public health and development. The assessment underscores the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies and health system strengthening to mitigate the risks and improve resilience.