深度报告-2025-09-01-世界银行-印尼煤炭转型脆弱性的空间分析（英）页_40页_3mb

Summary of "Spatial Analysis of Coal Transition Vulnerability in Indonesia"

Core Content

This working paper presents a spatial analysis of coal transition vulnerability in Indonesia, employing a mixed-methods approach that integrates quantitative data with qualitative insights from stakeholder consultations and interviews. The study focuses on understanding the geographic distribution of vulnerability to coal transition and its socioeconomic implications, particularly for communities and workers in coal-dependent regions.

Main Viewpoints

• Coal's Economic Importance: Indonesia is the world's sixth-largest coal reserve holder, with coal accounting for 63% of its energy production. The coal sector contributes significantly to GDP, exports, and national revenue, although direct employment is relatively small.
• Energy Transition Commitments: Indonesia has committed to a renewable energy transition, aiming to generate 31% of its energy from renewables by 2050. However, the pace and timing of coal phaseout remain uncertain.
• Geographic Concentration of Vulnerability: Vulnerability to coal transition is geographically concentrated, with provinces like East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra showing high susceptibility due to their reliance on coal mining and coal-fired power generation.
• Localized Impacts: The study highlights the localized nature of coal transition impacts, with specific challenges faced by communities, particularly women, youth, indigenous populations, and informal workers.
• Need for Inclusive Strategies: The paper emphasizes the need for inclusive and tailored strategies to manage the socioeconomic impacts of coal phaseout, based on the concept of a "just transition."

Key Information

Coal Transition Vulnerability Index (CTVI)

• The CTVI is a composite index that evaluates vulnerability through three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.
• Exposure includes coal mine and plant data, such as number of mines, production volume, and projected changes.
• Sensitivity considers the number of coal-related workers, income levels, economic contributions to regional GDP, and the presence of coal-dependent industries.
• Adaptive Capacity evaluates economic diversification, human development index (HDI), village development index (IPD), and demographic factors like the age dependency ratio.

Spatial Findings

• Provinces with Highest Vulnerability: East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra are identified as the most vulnerable provinces due to their heavy reliance on coal.
• Regencies with High CTVI Scores: Within these provinces, regencies like Kutai Kartanegara and Kutai Timur in East Kalimantan, and Tanah Bumbu and Tanah Laut in South Kalimantan, show the highest vulnerability.
• Dual Exposure Regions: South Sumatra faces dual exposure from both coal mining and power generation, indicating a more complex transition scenario.
• Papua's Vulnerability: The inclusion of captive coal plants expands the assessment to regions like Papua, which are not traditionally associated with coal but still show vulnerability due to limited economic diversification and low adaptive capacity.

Challenges and Implications

• Mine Closures and Job Losses: Mine closures and job losses are likely to occur rapidly, affecting specific geographies, while the development of alternative employment and infrastructure requires long-term planning.
• Economic and Social Disruptions: The transition is expected to have significant economic and social impacts, especially on communities that depend on coal for income and employment.
• Informal Workers and Vulnerable Groups: Informal workers and vulnerable groups, including women and youth, are disproportionately affected by coal phaseout.
• Uncertain Retirement Timelines: The timeline for retiring coal-fired power plants remains unclear, despite recent regulatory efforts, which could delay the transition process.

Policy Recommendations

• Targeted Support: Regions and communities with high vulnerability should receive targeted support during the transition.
• Economic Diversification: Encouraging economic diversification is crucial for enhancing adaptive capacity and reducing reliance on coal.
• Investment in Social Infrastructure: Sustained investment in social infrastructure and alternative employment opportunities is necessary to manage the transition's impacts.
• Inclusive Strategies: Policies should be inclusive and tailored to address the specific needs of vulnerable groups and regions.

Conclusion

The paper underscores the importance of a just transition in Indonesia, emphasizing the need for proactive and inclusive strategies to manage the socioeconomic implications of coal phaseout. The CTVI provides a useful framework for identifying vulnerable regions and communities, facilitating informed policy decisions and targeted interventions.