2018技术预言_全球技术领域的趋势与创新（英文版）-2mb

2018 Technology Predictions Summary

Core Content

GP Bullhound's 2018 Technology Predictions report outlines ten key trends expected to shape the global tech sector. The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation of technology and its increasing role in society, despite growing concerns around regulation, cybersecurity, and the ethical implications of digital platforms.

Main Predictions and Key Trends

1. An Uneasy Future for Politics and Technology

• Context: Tech firms are facing greater scrutiny due to their role in digital advertising and content moderation, especially after hacking scandals in national elections.
• Impact: Political digital advertising has become a major concern, with the US seeing a significant increase in ad spend (from $159m in 2012 to $1.4bn in 2016).
• Challenges: The lack of regulation and the potential for malicious interference through platforms like Facebook and Google.
• Response: Tech companies are now expected to take on more responsibility, with increased security spending and policy changes.

2. Cyber Security – Exposure and Adoption

• Context: As the number of connected devices grows, so does the risk of cyber threats.
• Consumer Awareness: Over 75% of consumers are concerned about security, privacy, and data tracking.
• Trend: Cybersecurity measures will become more widely adopted by both businesses and individuals.
• Examples: Major breaches like Uber's and Equifax's have heightened awareness and led to increased demand for security software and solutions.

3. Mobile Trumps TV in China

• Context: China's mobile-first economy is rapidly growing.
• Trend: Mobile usage is expected to surpass TV usage in 2018, driven by the rise of mobile payments and the increasing integration of mobile into daily life.
• Data: Mobile payments reached $5.5 trillion in 2016, and 2018 is predicted to be the peak year for mobile in China.

4. Translation Technology Takes Hold

• Context: Advances in machine learning and neural networks are improving language recognition and translation.
• Trend: Translation technology will see increased user adoption, with the potential for universal understanding.
• Goal: GP Bullhound predicts one billion people will use translation technology in 2018.

5. Over and Out, Email

• Context: Instant messaging platforms are becoming more popular in the workplace.
• Trend: The volume of corporate emails in the US is expected to decline for the first time in history.
• Drivers: Platforms like Slack and Messenger are driving this shift due to their efficiency and simplicity.

6. International Labor Arbitrage Flourishes

• Context: Rising costs in tech hubs are pushing companies to expand to new regions.
• Trend: Smaller tech firms are expected to move operations to emerging tech hubs, reducing reliance on Silicon Valley, Shenzhen, Berlin, and Stockholm.
• Reason: Technology enables distributed workforces, making it easier for companies to operate globally.

7. The Unlikely Comeback of the Software Suite

• Context: As businesses embrace digital transformation, the need for integrated IT platforms is increasing.
• Trend: Software suites are expected to see renewed interest and adoption.
• Drivers: Companies are looking for more efficient and comprehensive IT solutions to optimize their operations.

8. Industry 4.0

• Context: The fourth industrial revolution is taking hold in manufacturing.
• Trend: AI and robotics will lead to significant improvements in productivity and quality.
• Projection: Smart factories are expected to increase productivity sevenfold by 2022.

9. Augmented Reality Adapts for Early Adoption

• Context: AR is gaining traction as a consumer-facing technology.
• Trend: 2018 will be a key year for AR, with increased consumer adoption.
• Drivers: Platforms like Apple and Google are driving this growth, and smartphones are becoming more compatible with AR.

10. Regulators Rule on the Boom and Bust of ICOs

• Context: Blockchain and ICOs have seen explosive growth in 2017.
• Trend: Regulatory agencies are expected to intervene and create guidelines for ICOs.
• Expectation: Despite regulation, innovation in ICOs will continue, with a growing volume of transactions.

Expert Views

Ben Brabyn, Level39

• Prediction: 2018 will be the year consumers demand cybersecurity protection.
• Observation: High-profile cyber attacks have increased awareness and urgency around security.
• Opportunity: Consumer-focused cybersecurity companies will benefit from this shift, as businesses also seek to monitor and protect against threats.

Methodology

• The report is based on insights from GP Bullhound's analysts and dealmakers.
• It includes a review of previous predictions from 2017 and an analysis of current trends.
• The report highlights both the opportunities and challenges in the technology sector.

Summary of Key Statistics

• 75% of consumers want tight control over their personal information.
• 50% of connected US households are very concerned about unauthorized access.
• 1/3 of Americans live in a household with three or more smartphones.
• $1.9bn is projected to be spent on digital advertising in the 2018 mid-term elections.
• $22.9bn was invested in AI firms in the first half of 2017.

Conclusion

Despite challenges, the report remains optimistic about the future of technology in 2018. It highlights the transformative potential of tech in various sectors, from cybersecurity to augmented reality, and suggests that the industry will continue to evolve and address emerging concerns.