20200408-亚行-ASIAN_DEVELOPMENT_OUTLOOK_2020_392页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of Asian Development Outlook 2020

Core Content

The Asian Development Outlook 2020 highlights the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on developing Asia and underscores the importance of innovation in driving sustainable and inclusive growth. The report outlines the challenges posed by the health crisis and provides projections for economic recovery, emphasizing the need for long-term policy commitment to foster innovation across the region.

Main Views

Economic Impact of the Pandemic

The pandemic has significantly disrupted economic activity in developing Asia, leading to a sharp slowdown in growth.
In 2020, growth is expected to decline to 2.2%, rebounding to 6.2% in 2021 if the outbreak is contained.
Excluding high-income newly industrialized economies (Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei, China), growth is forecast to drop to 2.4% in 2020 before recovering to 6.7% in 2021.

Regional Growth Projections

East Asia: Growth is expected to decline from 5.4% in 2019 to 2.0% in 2020, then rebound to 6.5% in 2021.
Southeast Asia: Growth will drop to 1.0% in 2020 before recovering to 4.7% in 2021.
Central Asia: Growth will slow to 2.8% in 2020 due to lower oil prices.
The Pacific: Growth is forecast to contract by 0.3% in 2020 due to declining tourism, but will recover in 2021.
South Asia: Growth is expected to slow to 4.1% in 2020 and then recover to 6.0% in 2021, largely tracking the performance of India.

Inflation Trends

Inflation in 2019 increased to 2.9%, driven by rising food prices.
In 2020, inflation is projected to rise to 3.2%, mainly due to pork prices in the PRC, but is expected to ease to 2.3% in 2021 as food prices decline.
Inflation in South Asia is forecast to ease to 4.1% in 2020, while Pakistan may face double-digit inflation due to food price increases, utility rate hikes, and currency depreciation.

Current Account Surplus

The current account surplus in developing Asia is expected to widen in 2019 and 2020 but narrow in 2021.
The PRC accounts for a significant portion of the regional impact, with losses estimated at 5% of GDP, while the rest of developing Asia faces losses between 1.0% and 2.2% of GDP.

Risks and Uncertainties

The pandemic poses downside risks to the outlook, with potential for further outbreaks, financial turmoil, and long-term economic and social disruptions.
The global cost of the pandemic is estimated between $2.0 trillion to $4.1 trillion, equivalent to 2.3% to 4.8% of global GDP.

Key Drivers of Innovation

The report identifies five key drivers of innovation in Asia that should guide policy decisions:

Sound Education Systems: Education is foundational for innovation, but many Asian countries still struggle with basic literacy and numeracy skills.
Productive Entrepreneurship: Encouraging innovative entrepreneurship is essential for sustainable growth.
High-Quality Institutions: Strong institutions provide the necessary regulatory and legal framework for innovation.
Efficient Financial Systems: Access to capital and efficient financial markets are crucial for innovation.
Dynamic Cities: Cities that facilitate knowledge exchange and bring together top universities and forward-thinking firms are vital for innovation.

Conclusion

Innovation is critical for overcoming the current economic crisis and restoring growth.
The journey to an innovative society requires long-term commitment and sustained effort.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been actively supporting its member countries through policy dialogue, financial assistance, and technical support.

Document Overview

The Asian Development Bank is a key institution in the region, with 68 members, including 49 from Asia and the Pacific.
The report is based on information available up to 20 March 2020.
It includes economic forecasts, policy recommendations, and special topics such as the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

Key Information

The foreword is written by Yasuyuki Sawada, Chief Economist of ADB.
The special topic provides an updated assessment of the pandemic's regional and global impact.
The report includes data from various subregions and countries in Asia and the Pacific.
Assumptions and abbreviations are provided for clarity and reference.

Policy and Support

ADB has been supporting its clients since the early stages of the crisis.
The report calls for greater efforts to advance the region's transformation to high-income economies.
Collaboration with other international organizations like the IMF and World Bank is emphasized.

References and Contact

The report is published under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license.
Contact details for ADB are provided, including the address, phone, fax, and website.
Corrigenda to ADB publications can be found at the ADB website.

Notes

The symbol “$” refers to US dollars.
Geographic classifications are provided for clarity, including ASEAN, Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and The Pacific.

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