高频数据跟踪：节后生产端热度回升-20240225-中邮证券-13页_1mb

Summary of Fixed Income Research Report

Date: 2024-02-25
Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC S1340523070001) and Cui Chao (SAC S1340523120001)

Core Observations

• Production: After the holiday, production heat improved significantly, with tire and asphalt opening rates rebounding; chemical production remained high. Steel production showed stabilization but minor weakness.
• Demand: Resident travel and entertainment demand declined post-holiday, with movie ticket sales peaking. However, real estate demand supported by a recent LPR cut.
• Prices: Markets saw mixed price movements, including increases in coal, copper, and zinc; decreases in oil, steel, and agricultural prices.
• Logistics: Air transport volumes decreased, while metro passenger volumes and freight traffic recovered rapidly post-holiday.
• Policy: The non-symmetric LPR rate cut of 25BP for the 5-year loan supports real estate recovery, outweighing some holiday demand lull.
• Risks: Short-term risks include uncertainty on policy effectiveness and potential liquidity tightening.

Short-Term Outlook

The upcoming focus is on monitoring the pace of production and real estate recovery as weather and project restarts drive modest gains in steel.