20160128-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_30页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of market updates and investment analysis for several Asian countries, focusing on key companies and financial metrics.
Main Countries and Companies
China
- CIFI Holdings (884 HK)
- Key View: Strong valuation recovery expected when fundamentals improve.
- Sales Forecast: Rmb36b in 2016, with a 60% sell-through rate.
- Earnings Growth: Expected 2016 core EPS growth of 2.14%, 1.76%, and 1.68% for 2015-17.
- Valuation: Target price HK$1.72, implying +24.6% upside from current price of HK$1.38.
- Dividend Yield: Projected to increase from 8.5% to 11.9% by 2017.
- Growth Drivers: Further mortgage and credit easing, better sales, and lower financing costs.
- Risks: Delay in new launches, lower cash collection rate, and RMB devaluation.
Indonesia
- Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)
- Key View: Sales volume growth and energy cost savings are expected to boost earnings in 2016.
- Sales Forecast: 6% yoy sales volume growth to 18mt in 2016.
- Earnings Growth: Net profit expected to grow to Rp5.2t in 2016 and Rp5.7t in 2017.
- Valuation: Target price Rp24,400, 17x 2016F PE, trading at -1SD.
- Dividend Yield: Projected to rise to 4.8% in 2016.
- Growth Drivers: Infrastructure projects, lower manufacturing costs, and stable ASP.
- Risks: Stiffer competition could affect ASP and earnings forecasts.
Key Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 15944.5 | -1.4 | 1.1 | -9.2 | -8.5 |
| S&P 500 | 1883.0 | -1.1 | 1.3 | -8.6 | -7.9 |
| FTSE 100 | 5990.4 | +1.3 | +5.6 | -4.2 | -4.0 |
| AS30 | 4978.0 | -0.5 | +1.7 | -5.3 | -6.9 |
| CSI 300 | 2930.4 | -0.3 | -7.7 | +21.4 | +21.5 |
| FSSTI | 2546.2 | 0.0 | -0.5 | +11.4 | +11.7 |
| HSCEI | 7959.5 | 0.8 | -0.7 | +18.7 | +17.6 |
| HSI | 19052.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | -13.1 | -13.1 |
| JCI | 4583.6 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| KLCI | 1631.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -2.3 | -3.6 |
| KOSPI | 1888.2 | -0.5 | +2.6 | -3.9 | -3.7 |
| Nikkei 225 | 17059.8 | -0.6 | +6.5 | -9.6 | -10.4 |
| SET | 1278.3 | 0.8 | 2.3 | -0.6 | -0.8 |
| TWSE | 7849.8 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -6.1 | -5.9 |
| BDI | 337 | -2.3 | -5.9 | +29.5 | +29.5 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2305 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 4.8 |
| Brent Crude (US$/bbl) | 33 | 4.1 | 18.7 | -12.6 | -11.2 |
Top Picks
BUY
- Beijing Capital (694 HK): Target price HK$11.40, Potential upside +63.1%
- ICBC (1398 HK): Target price HK$7.60, Potential upside +96.4%
- Bank BJB (BJBR IJ): Target price HK$1,140.00, Potential upside +31.8%
- DiGi.Com (DIGI MK): Target price HK$5.95, Potential upside +16.7%
- Maybank (MAY MK): Target price HK$10.00, Potential upside +19.9%
- City Developments (CIT SP): Target price HK$10.86, Potential upside +62.6%
- DBS (DBS SP): Target price HK$22.34, Potential upside +63.5%
- Kasikornbank (KBANK TB): Target price HK$192.00, Potential upside +18.9%
- PTT (PTT TB): Target price HK$340.00, Potential upside +53.2%
SELL
- SIA Engineering (SIE SP): Target price HK$3.30, Potential downside -1.5%
- UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price HK$6.00, Potential downside -8.5%
- Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Target price HK$0.88, Potential downside -40.3%
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP (yoy) 2014 | GDP (yoy) 2015F | GDP (yoy) 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Japan | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Singapore | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Malaysia | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Thailand | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| China | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Begin | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greater China Strategy and Energy Sector Analyst Presentation | London | 28 Jan | 28 Jan |
| Greater China Strategy and Energy Sector Analyst Presentation | Dublin | 29 Jan | 29 Jan |
| Dawnrays Pharma Roadshow | Shanghai | 29 Jan | 29 Jan |
| MAL Utilities Analyst Presentation | Kuala Lumpur | 3 Feb | 3 Feb |
| Singapore Airlines Luncheon | Singapore | 5 Feb | 5 Feb |
Summary of Key Financials and Metrics
CIFI Holdings (884 HK)
- Net Turnover (Rmbm): 2013: 11,909; 2014: 16,179; 2015F: 19,468; 2016F: 23,361; 2017F: 25,697
- EBITDA (Rmbm): 2013: 3,163; 2014: 3,711; 2015F: 3,906; 2016F: 4,937; 2017F: 5,564
- Net Profit (Rmbm): 2013: 1,894; 2014: 1,861; 2015F: 2,253; 2016F: 2,796; 2017F: 3,155
- EPS (fen): 2013: 26.1; 2014: 32.2; 2015F: 36.5; 2016F: 45.3; 2017F: 51.1
- PE (x): 2013: 5.5; 2014: 3.6; 2015F: 3.2; 2016F: 2.6; 2017F: 2.3
- P/B (x): 2013: 0.8; 2014: 0.7; 2015F: 0.6; 2016F: 0.5; 2017F: 0.4
- EV/EBITDA (x): 2013: 5.8; 2014: 5.0; 2015F: 4.7; 2016F: 3.7; 2017F: 3.3
- Dividend Yield (%): 2013: 5.1; 2014: 8.0; 2015F: 8.5; 2016F: 10.5; 2017F: 11.9
- Net Margin (%): 2013: 12.7; 2014: 12.0; 2015F: 11.6; 2016F: 12.0; 2017F: 12.3
- Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity (%): 2013: 71.9; 2014: 66.0; 2015F: 65.3; 2016F: 63.7; 2017F: 68.1
- Interest Cover (x): 2013: 3.0; 2014: 3.1; 2015F: 2.8; 2016F: 3.1; 2017F: 3.0
- ROE (%): 2013: 17.6; 2014: 19.0; 2015F: 19.0; 2016F: 20.1; 2017F: 19.5
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)
- Net Turnover (Rpb): 2013: 18,691; 2014: 19,996; 2015F: 18,885; 2016F: 20,021; 2017F: 22,299
- EBITDA (Rpb): 2013: 6,784; 2014: 6,732; 2015F: 7,116; 2016F: 8,207; 2017F: 8,854
- Net Profit (Rpb): 2013: 5,012; 2014: 5,274; 2015F: 4,749; 2016F: 5,167; 2017F: 5,703
- EPS (Rp): 2013: 1,361.3; 2014: 1,432.8; 2015F: 1,290.2; 2016F: 1,403.2; 2017F: 1,548.6
- PE (x): 2013: 14.5; 2014: 13.8; 2015F: 15.3; 2016F: 14.1; 2017F: 12.8
- P/B (x): 2013: 3.2; 2014: 2.9; 2015F: 2.7; 2016F: 2.6; 2017F: 2.4
- EV/EBITDA (x): 2013: 9.5; 2014: 9.6; 2015F: 9.1; 2016F: 7.9; 2017F: 7.3
- Dividend Yield (%): 2013: 2.3; 2014: 4.5; 2015F: 4.8; 2016F: 4.3; 2017F: 4.7
- Net Margin (%): 2013: 26.8; 2014: 26.4; 2015F: 25.1; 2016F: 25.8; 2017F: 25.6
- Net Debt/(Cash) to Equity (%): 2013: -54.5; 2014: -45.1; 2015F: -31.9; 2016F: -29.3; 2017F: -28.6
- Interest Cover (x): 2013: 117.2; 2014: 271.9; 2015F: 339.2; 2016F: 401.7; 2017F: 442.1
- ROE (%): 2013: 23.7; 2014: 22.1; 2015F: 18.5; 2016F: 19.4; 2017F: 20.6
Key Points
- CIFI Holdings is expected to have strong sales and valuation recovery in 2016, with a target price of HK$1.72.
- Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa is projected to see improved earnings due to sales growth and energy cost reductions, with a target price of Rp24,400.
- Market Indices show mixed performance, with some indices like the FTSE 100 and KLCI showing positive growth while others like the CSI 300 and HSI show negative performance.
- Top Picks include several companies with strong growth potential and favorable valuations.
- Corporate Events include analyst presentations and roadshows, which can influence investor sentiment.
- Key Financial Metrics for both companies highlight their profitability and leverage positions, with a focus on EPS, PE, and net margin.
Summary
This document offers a comprehensive analysis of the Asian markets, highlighting key companies like CIFI Holdings and Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, their financial performance, and future outlook. It includes updates on sales, earnings, and valuation, along with key indices and corporate events. The report also provides a list of top picks and maintains a BUY recommendation for several companies with projected growth and improved fundamentals.
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