英文_高盛_IMI_Plc_IMI.L_风险回报更趋平衡_因短周期增长放缓_评级下调至中性_18页_1mb

报告摘要

27 May 2025 | Goldman Sachs IMI Plc (IMI.L) Downgrade to Neutral

Goldman Sachs downgrades IMI Plc (formerly IMI plc) to Neutral from Buy due to revised earnings forecasts, reflecting riskier short-cycle growth and increasing uncertainty. Our 12-month price target is lowered to 2,120p from 2,220p.

Key Financial Revision

Adj. FY25e EPS revised down to 129.8p, the lower end of management guidance (129-136p), primarily due to weaker orders in Process Automation (PA) and Industrial Automation (IA), driven by declining U.S. ISM manufacturing PMIs and reduced U.S. capex.
OSG forecasts revised across all divisions due to reduced capex tracker forecasts (7/8 end markets), impacting FY24-28e revenue/EBITDA growth. Exhibit 14 shows orders/revenue declining 9.2% (PA) and 16.0% (Transport).

Downgrade Drivers

Short-cycle business headwinds: PA and IA face slower growth due to U.S. capex cuts and low inventory-to-orders ratios (e.g., Exhibit 2).
Capex tracker uncertainties: Revised outlooks in Power Generation, O&G, and Marine sectors reduce OE demand, partially offset by large PA orders in nuclear/LNG.
Financial risks: Unit EPS growth externalities and modest mix shifts in Automation (Exhibit 14).

Outlook & Price Implications

Neutral rating with 10% upside potential vs. sector (GPv 12m). Recommended multiples (EV/EBIT 12.7x, P/E 15.4x) align with 10Y medians.
Downside risks include worsening Industrial Automation, tariff impacts, integration issues from M&A, and FX headwinds.

Segment Analysis

Automation: OSG revised lower due to IA & PA headwinds; climate control maintains steady growth (+4.2%).
Life Technology: Improved forecasts for Climate Control but mixed results across segments.

Financial Summary

Net Debt/Equity ratio declined to 42.1% through FY25E due to buyback, but FX pressures may impact margins. ROIC is expected to reach 24.7% by 2025E.

Footnotes

1 Price targets, ROIC calculations, and EPS forecasts calculated based on GS estimates.
2 Pricing factors based on fundamentals and market data provided by GS researchers.

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