仲量联行2025年美国精选服务和长住酒店展望报告英文版15页_1mb

U.S. Select-Service and Extended-Stay Hotel Outlook 2025 Summary

Core Content

The U.S. select-service and extended-stay hotel sector is expected to remain a strong and durable investment opportunity in 2025 and beyond, driven by robust performance, profitability, and resilience against economic and inflationary pressures. Despite challenges such as high interest rates and supply constraints, the sector continues to attract significant investor interest and show adaptability to evolving consumer preferences.

Main Points

1. Strong Performance and Profitability

• RevPAR Growth: In 2024, the sector achieved a record RevPAR of $78, which is 14% above 2019 levels.
• Demand Recovery: Room night demand increased by 232,000 year-over-year, nearly fully recovering from 2019 levels.
• Profit Margins: The sector consistently outperforms full-service hotels in GOP margins, with a 26% margin in 2020, 11 percentage points higher than full-service.
• Inflation Resilience: EBITDA PAR growth has outpaced inflation with a 23% CAGR versus 5% for CPI, indicating strong inflation-beating returns.

2. Demand Forecast

• 2025 Outlook: Room night demand is expected to surpass 2019 levels, reaching 1.02 billion, a 16% increase from the long-term average of 2001.
• Consumer Trends: The sector appeals to a diversified customer base, including leisure, business, and "bleisure" travelers, due to amenities like in-room kitchenettes and recreational areas.

3. Brand Proliferation and Supply Constraints

• Brand Growth: The number of hotel brands in the sector has increased from 184 in 2000 to 214 today, with branded hotels now accounting for 74% of total supply.
• Supply Growth: Annual supply growth has remained below 2.6% since 2020, well below the long-term average, due to elevated interest rates, high development costs, and supply chain disruptions.
• Strategic Expansion: With limited organic growth, hotel brand companies are increasingly relying on M&A and conversions to drive net unit growth. Notable M&A activity includes OYO's acquisition of G6 Hospitality.

4. Investor Interest and Liquidity

• Investment Volume: Since 2021, the sector has attracted $62.6 billion in investment, nearly double the prior four-year cycle.
• Investor Composition: In 2024, owner-operators (29%), private equity (28%), and HNWIs (17%) represented the largest portions of liquidity. "Other" investors, including government and nonprofit agencies, also play a growing role.
• Portfolio Premium: Portfolio transactions declined sharply in 2024 due to high interest rates, but JLL anticipates a return of portfolio premiums as rates fall and credit spreads compress.

5. Lender Diversification

• Loan Origination: In 2024, loan origination volume reached $18.2 billion, up 6.4% year-over-year.
• Deal Size: The sector's average deal size is $17 million, significantly lower than full-service hotels, making it more attractive to lenders.
• Lender Mix: There has been a shift towards a more diverse lending landscape, with insurance companies and CMBS lenders increasing their share. This trend is expected to continue as debt market clarity improves.

Key Information

• RevPAR: $78 in 2024, 14% above 2019.
• Room Night Demand: Projected to reach 1.02 billion in 2025, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
• GOP Margins: 26% in 2020, 11 points higher than full-service.
• EBITDA PAR CAGR: 23% (2021–2024) vs. 5% for CPI.
• Investment Volume: $62.6 billion since 2021, with select-service and extended-stay comprising nearly 50% of U.S. hotel investment.
• Loan Origination: $18.2 billion in 2024, with average deal size at $17 million.
• Portfolio Volume: Declined 49% in 2024 to $848.6 million, but expected to recover as rates fall.
• Brand Growth: 214 total brands, 90% increase in branded room supply from 2000 to 2024.

Conclusion

The select-service and extended-stay hotel sector is well-positioned to maintain its status as a robust investment opportunity due to its strong performance, operational efficiency, and ability to outpace inflation. Despite supply constraints and high interest rates, the sector continues to attract diverse investors and lenders, with M&A and conversions playing a pivotal role in expansion. As the market evolves, the sector is expected to benefit from increased liquidity, improved lender confidence, and a return of portfolio premiums, reinforcing its long-term appeal.