20240304-招银国际-云音乐-09899.HK-Solid_core_music_business_and_margin_expansion_outlook_5页_591kb

报告摘要

Cloud Music (9899 HK) Analysis Summary

Financial Performance FY23

Total revenue declined 13% YoY to RMB7.87bn in FY23, primarily due to social entertainment business adjustment (-42% YoY in H2Y23), but adjusted net income of RMB819mn beat estimates.
Adjusted net profit improved due to gross profit margin (GPM) expansion to 28.7% in H2Y23, driven by better monetization and cost efficiencies.
Revenue outlook lowered by 6-8% for FY24-25 due to continued social entertainment pressures.

Business Outlook

Core music business remains strong, with online music revenue growing 22% YoY to RMB2.3bn in H2Y23, accounting for 59% of total revenue, fueled by subscription growth (+24% YoY) and ad monetization.
Average monthly paying users reached 44.1mn (end of 2023), with a paying ratio of 21.4%, and is expected to grow 15% YoY in 2024.
Social entertainment business faces ongoing challenges, with revenue potentially declining 18% YoY in 2024 after a -42% YoY drop in H2Y23 due to strategic shifts.

Margin Expansion and Future Growth

GPM improved significantly to 28.7% in H2Y23 (+12.3ppt YoY), and forecasts suggest it will rise to 31.0% in FY24 and 33.7% in FY25, supported by GPM expansion.
Adjusted net income forecast raised by 1-2% for FY24-25, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% over FY24-26.
Paid user base and AI-driven music discovery enhancements (e.g., recommendation algorithms) are key drivers of user engagement and revenue growth.

Valuation and Recommendations

Analyst rating: BUY, with target price increased to HK$106.5 (prior: HK$99.5), implying 17.7% upside from current price.
DCF-based valuation uses a WACC of 14.7% and terminal growth of 2.5%, highlighting attractive 18x FY24E PEG E valuation.
Maintain positive stance on core music business and GPM expansion.

Key Metrics

YoY revenue growth: Negative in FY23, stable outlook expected.
GPM: Current 28.7% in H2Y23, projected to 31.0%+ by FY25.
EPS (adjusted): Expected to rise with CAGR of 28% over FY24-26.

Notes: This summary focuses on the core analysis from the report. Full financial details, including forecasts and P/E ratios, are referenced in the source.

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