20260326-招银国际-Solid_core_business_growth_outlook_pursuing_expansion_opportunities_beyond_LiDAR_market_7页_688kb

Hesai Group (HSAI US) Summary

Core Content

Hesai Group (HSAI US) reported its 4Q25 financial results, showing total revenue of RMB1.0bn, an 8% decline from the Bloomberg consensus but a 39% YoY increase. Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB181mn, surpassing both the forecast and consensus. The company raised its 2026E LiDAR shipment guidance to 3.0–3.5mn units, driven by growth in ADAS and robotics LiDAR segments. The target price for 2026E is set at US$29.3, down from US$31.3, based on a 7.5x P/S multiple.

Main Points

• Financial Performance in 4Q25:

  • Total revenue: RMB1.0bn (+39% YoY, -8% vs. Bloomberg consensus)
  • Non-GAAP net profit: RMB181mn (+35.8% vs. consensus of RMB133mn)
  • LiDAR shipments: 631.1k units (+184% YoY, +2% vs. consensus)
    • ADAS LiDAR: 550.7k units (+185% YoY)
    • Robotics LiDAR: 80.4k units (+179% YoY)
  • ASP declined to RMB1.6k in 4Q25, down 12% QoQ

• 2026E Outlook:

  • Total LiDAR shipments: 3.25mn units (+99% YoY), with ADAS at 2.75mn units and robotics at 500k units
  • Total revenue forecast: RMB4.4bn (unchanged)
  • Gross profit margin (GPM): Expected to decline slightly to 39.5% (from 41.8% in 2025)
  • EBIT margin: Projected to improve to 10.3% (from 5.6% in 2025)
  • Operating expenses: Flat or slightly declining for existing business, but increased by mid-teens due to physical AI investments

• Valuation and Target Price:

  • Target price: US$29.3 (based on 7.5x 2026E P/S)
  • 12-month price performance: -27.2% (absolute), -24.0% (relative)
  • Market capitalization: US$3,195.4mn

• Key Catalysts:

  • Faster-than-expected adoption of L3 vehicles, increasing LiDAR units per vehicle
  • Ramp-up in physical AI-related product revenue
  • Increasing revenue contribution from international ADAS expansion

Key Financial Metrics

• Revenue Growth (YoY):

  • 2024A: 10.7%
  • 2025A: 45.8%
  • 2026E: 45.6%
  • 2027E: 36.5%
  • 2028E: 33.3%

• Gross Profit Margin:

  • 2023A: 35.2%
  • 2024A: 42.6%
  • 2025A: 41.8%
  • 2026E: 39.5%
  • 2027E: 39.0%
  • 2028E: 38.5%

• Operating Margin:

  • 2023A: -30.5%
  • 2024A: -9.9%
  • 2025A: 5.6%
  • 2026E: 10.3%
  • 2027E: 16.4%
  • 2028E: 20.6%

• Non-GAAP Net Profit Margin:

  • 2023A: -12.9%
  • 2024A: 0.7%
  • 2025A: 18.2%
  • 2026E: 14.9%
  • 2027E: 17.5%
  • 2028E: 19.1%

• EPS (Adjusted):

  • FY24A: 0.11
  • FY25A: 3.96
  • FY26E: 4.04
  • FY27E: 6.56
  • FY28E: 9.53

• Consensus EPS:

  • FY25A: 3.96
  • FY26E: 3.97
  • FY27E: 6.36
  • FY28E: 10.16

Risks

• Market Adoption: Potential product defects and alternative technologies (e.g., camera-based systems) may reduce LiDAR adoption.
• Penetration Rates: Lower-than-expected adoption of LiDAR/ADAS.
• Competition: Rising competition and potential price wars could impact ASP and margins.
• Cost Management: Higher-than-expected operating expenses may slow margin expansion.

Analyst Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months

Analyst Certification

• The research analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect their personal views.
• No compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views expressed in the report.
• Analyst did not trade in the stock covered within 30 days prior to the report’s release and will not trade within 3 business days after.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Disclosures

• Important Disclosures:

  • CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
  • Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
  • Information is based on publicly available data and not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
  • CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. and is not subject to U.S. research regulations.
  • The report is for distribution to major U.S. institutional investors only.

• Legal Disclaimer:

  • The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy/sell securities.
  • CMBIGM is not liable for any losses incurred by relying on the information in the report.
  • The report is for intended recipients only and cannot be reproduced without consent.

Shareholding and Performance

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Fermat Star Limited: 6.1%
  • Galbadia Limited: 5.9%

• Stock Performance:

  • 12-month price performance: -31.0% (absolute), -29.3% (relative)

Financial Summary

• Balance Sheet Highlights:

  • Total assets: RMB11,701mn in 2026E
  • Total liabilities: RMB2,390mn in 2026E
  • Total equity: RMB9,311mn in 2026E
  • Current ratio: 3.7x
  • Inventory turnover days: 119.3
  • Payable turnover days: 113.7

• Cash Flow:

  • Net cash from operations: RMB313mn in 2026E
  • Net cash from investing: -RMB504mn in 2026E
  • Net cash from financing: RMB0mn in 2026E

• Growth Trends:

  • Revenue growth: 45.6% in 2026E
  • Gross profit growth: 37.6% in 2026E
  • Operating profit growth: 168.2% in 2026E
  • EBITDA growth: 246.5% in 2026E
  • Net profit growth: 16.5% in 2026E
  • Adjusted net profit growth: 19.4% in 2026E

Conclusion

Hesai Group is focusing on expanding its core LiDAR business while pursuing opportunities in physical AI. The company has shown strong shipment growth and is expected to benefit from increased adoption of L3 vehicles and expansion into international markets. Despite a decline in ASP due to product mix shifts, the company's financial performance and margin improvements are positive. The target price of US$29.3 reflects the 7.5x P/S multiple, with a BUY rating maintained. However, the company faces risks from competition, alternative technologies, and cost management.