20130927-Maybank_KERPL-Biostime_Earnings_Upside_Is_Highly_Likely_17页_234kb

报告摘要

Biostime Summary

Core Content

Biostime is a leading provider of premium pediatric nutrition and baby care products in China, with a ticker symbol of 1112 HK. The company has a significant market presence, with major shareholders including Biostime Pharmaceutical holding 74.7% of the shares. The current share price is HKD59.50, and the target price remains at HKD75.80.

Key Financial Metrics

Metric	FY12A	FY13F	FY14F	FY15F
Revenue (CNYm)	3,382	4,978	6,709	8,874
Net Profit (ex-NDRC fine)	743	1,126	1,585	2,120
Basic EPS (CNY)	1.24	1.60	2.63	3.52
Net Profit Margin (%)	19.35	23.63	23.89	23.89
ROE (%)	34.6	36.9	47.8	50.4
ROA (%)	24.9	24.5	31.8	34.1
Interest Cover (x)	478.24	216.81	228.91	277.61
Net Cash (HKDm)	2,011.5
NTA/shr (HKD)	5.92
P/BV(x)	13.1	10.5	8.1	7.7

Main Points and Key Information

Earnings and Growth Outlook

The analyst believes that the Street's earnings projections are too conservative.
Estimated FY13F and FY14F net profits are CNY1,126m and CNY1,585m, respectively, which are higher than the consensus estimates.
The company is expected to achieve a significant earnings upside due to the successful launch of "AdiMil" and "ADISMART" and the OTO model.

Sales and Market Trends

The company's sales are projected to grow from CNY4,978m in FY13F to CNY8,874m in FY15F.
Active Mama100 members are projected to increase to 2.09m in FY13F, with an average of 50k new members added monthly.
The sales mix is shifting towards higher-tier products, with high-tier infant formula sales increasing by 18% YoY and low-to-mid tier sales by 82% YoY.
Specialty stores account for approximately 70% of Biostime's sales and are expected to remain the key sales channel due to their one-stop solution and the limited impact of the government's push to sell infant formula in local pharmacies.

Key Catalysts

Launch of "AdiMil" and "ADISMART" is expected to drive growth.
The OTO model is anticipated to boost sales.
The company's sales growth in FY13F is projected to be 47.19%, while in FY14F it is expected to slow slightly to 34.78%.

Valuation Metrics

The company's PER is expected to decrease from 30.5 in FY13F to 13.9 in FY15F.
The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to drop from 19.6 in FY13F to 9.6 in FY15F.
The dividend yield is expected to rise from 1.8% in FY12A to 5.1% in FY15F.

Summary Table of Earnings Projections

Metric	FY13F	FY14F	FY15F
Sales (CNYm)	4,978	6,709	8,874
EBITDA (CNYm)	1,419	2,099	2,810
Net Profit (ex-NDRC) (CNYm)	1,126	1,585	2,120
Basic EPS (CNY)	1.60	2.63	3.52
EPS Growth (%)	28.97	64.61	33.70
DPS (CNY)	1.12	1.84	2.46
Dividend Cover (x)	2.05	1.84	1.84

Conclusion

Biostime is poised for strong earnings growth due to its successful product launches and solid sales trends. The company's valuation metrics suggest a potential re-rating as earnings momentum continues. The analyst recommends maintaining a "Buy" rating with the target price unchanged at HKD75.80.

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