2025-04-20-IEA-德国2025能源政策审查（英）_94页_1mb

Germany 2025 Energy Policy Summary

Core Content

Germany is at a pivotal stage in its energy transition (Energiewende), aiming to move away from nuclear, coal, and Russian natural gas, while transitioning towards renewables, low-emissions hydrogen, heat pumps, and electric vehicles (EVs). The International Energy Agency (IEA) report outlines Germany's progress and challenges in its energy and climate strategy, highlighting the need for policy stability, infrastructure development, and integrated planning to support a secure, affordable, and sustainable energy future.

The report identifies three key focus areas for Germany's energy transition:

1. Electricity system optimisation
2. Decarbonising heating in buildings
3. Expanding the role of hydrogen in the energy system

Main Views and Key Information

1. Electricity System Optimisation

• Germany aims to achieve 80% renewable energy in power consumption by 2030 and 100% renewable electricity by 2035.
• The electricity system must become more efficient, resilient, and flexible.
• Smart meter rollout should be accelerated to unlock demand-side flexibility and support distributed generation.
• Locational pricing and grid upgrades are essential to improve system operation and reduce the need for new grid infrastructure.
• Integrated planning across electricity, natural gas, and hydrogen networks is recommended to maximise synergies and reduce risks.

2. Decarbonising Heating in Buildings

• The Buildings Energy Act provides a long-term legal framework for renewable-based heating systems.
• Heat pumps and decarbonised district heating are highlighted as the primary options for reducing emissions in the buildings sector.
• Energy efficiency upgrades and support for homeowners through energy advisors are critical.
• The Heat Planning Act requires municipalities to develop climate-neutral heating infrastructure plans, which need timely support and resource allocation.
• There is a need for clear policy signals and regional co-ordination to align heat planning with broader energy strategies.

3. Expanding the Role of Hydrogen

• Germany has a comprehensive hydrogen strategy, focusing on its use in industries where direct electrification is difficult.
• The goal is to develop a global green hydrogen economy through domestic infrastructure and international co-operation.
• Low-emissions hydrogen demand must be stimulated through public procurement, carbon contracts, and green material standards.
• Integrated infrastructure planning for hydrogen, natural gas, and electricity is essential to repurpose existing gas pipelines and reduce investment risks.

Policy Recommendations

1. Ensure long-term policy and regulatory stability to support a secure and affordable clean energy transition.
2. Significantly ramp up efforts to decarbonise the transport sector.
3. Clarify the role of natural gas in the energy transition.
4. Prioritise actions to lower electricity retail prices.
5. Create clearer locational signals to improve system operation and reduce the need for new grids.
6. Hasten the smart meter rollout to unlock the flexibility of behind-the-meter assets.
7. Jump-start the expansion of large-scale storage in optimal locations.
8. Coordinate and advance municipal heat planning to enhance stakeholder value.
9. Send clear signals that heat pumps and district heating paired with energy efficiency will be the primary options for decarbonising heating.
10. Focus on stimulating targeted, low-emissions hydrogen demand.

Energy Policy Landscape

• Germany has made impressive progress in its energy transition, with renewable electricity generation surging and nuclear power phased out by 2023.
• It has reduced oil and gas imports from Russia, aligning with EU energy policy.
• Despite these achievements, industrial competitiveness and affordability remain key challenges, particularly due to high electricity prices and the 2023 constitutional court ruling on the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF).
• The System Stability Roadmap and System Development Strategy aim to ensure the secure and resilient operation of the energy system with 100% renewable sources by 2045.

Climate and Energy Strategy

• Germany is committed to reducing GHG emissions by 65% by 2030 and achieving climate neutrality by 2045.
• The Federal Climate Change Act sets annual emissions budgets and requires compliance verification on an aggregate basis.
• The Climate Action Programme 2023 outlines measures and financial mechanisms to support the transition, including the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), which was restructured due to constitutional concerns.
• The KTF budget for 2024 is EUR 49 billion, with 40% allocated to heating sector transition and 31% to reducing end-user energy costs.
• The Easter Package (2022) accelerated renewable integration and removed the renewables surcharge from electricity prices.

Taxation and Carbon Pricing

• Germany applies taxation on electricity, oil products, natural gas, coal, and coke products.
• The Electricity Duty Act and Energy Duty Act provide tax relief for decentralised energy generation, co-generation, and renewable energy use.
• The Fuel Emissions Trading Act introduced a national emissions trading system for sectors not covered by the EU ETS, with CO₂ prices increasing from 25 EUR/t in 2021 to 55 EUR/t in 2025, and a shift to market-based pricing after 2025.
• These sectors will fall under the EU ETS2 programme starting in 2027.

Energy Research and Development

• Energy R&D is a central pillar of Germany's transition strategy.
• EUR 1.5 billion was allocated in 2023 to energy transition research, stabilising at a higher level.
• The 8th Energy Research Programme guides applied energy research towards the energy transition, with five missions:
  • Energy system research
  • Heat transition
  • Electricity transition
  • Hydrogen
  • Transfer of research findings into practice
• The BMBF continues to support application-oriented basic research and co-ordination of projects with institutions such as the Helmholtz Association, Fraunhofer Gesellschaft, Max Planck Society, and Leibniz Association.

Skills and Competencies

• Germany needs to ensure sufficient skilled workers for the energy transition.
• The STEM Action Plan 2.0 aims to strengthen STEM education across all stages.
• Dual training regulations are being updated to support vocational training, especially for heat pump installation and other relevant areas.
• Special retraining support is available for workers affected by the transition, such as coal workers.

End-Use Sectors

• The buildings sector is the largest energy consumer, accounting for 42% of final energy consumption in 2023.
• Industry accounts for 30%, and transport for 28%.
• The decline in energy demand over the past decade has been mainly driven by the buildings sector.
• Germany has a dedicated Energy Efficiency Act to support the recast Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), aiming for 26.5% reduction in final energy consumption and 39.3% reduction in primary energy consumption by 2030.

Climate Targets and Progress

• Germany's emissions fell by 48% from 1990 levels in 2024, but steeper cuts are needed to meet its 2030 target.
• The 2024 projection indicates that the 2030 climate targets are within reach for the first time, but the transport sector is expected to exceed its emissions budget by 180 Mt CO₂-eq and the buildings sector by 32 Mt CO₂-eq (cumulative for 2021-30).
• The Federal Environmental Agency reports that emissions are below the permitted levels, but the Climate and Transformation Fund is under scrutiny for underestimating emissions and facing budget cuts.

Conclusion

Germany's energy transition is a complex but vital process, requiring policy stability, affordability, and public support. With the right strategies and implementation, it can lead the way in the clean energy economy, leveraging its industrial base and technological leadership. However, ongoing challenges in transport decarbonisation, buildings sector transformation, and hydrogen deployment necessitate targeted actions and clear communication to ensure success.