2023-06-22-ITIF-气候技术值得关注_清洁钢铁_9页_294kb

Clean Steel Industry Analysis Summary

Core Challenge

Steel production accounts for 7-9% of global CO2 emissions. Decarbonization requires significant technological innovation, supportive RD&D policies, and trade policies due to high costs associated with new methods.

Decarbonization Pathways

Three primary pathways for reducing steel industry emissions are being explored:

1. CCUS Technology: Can be retrofitted to existing facilities; however, scale-up and infrastructure development (pipeline networks) remain challenges.
2. DRI-H2 Process: Uses low-carbon hydrogen instead of natural gas in the direct reduction iron process; access to cheap hydrogen is major barrier.
3. Electrolysis Pathway: Fully decarbonizes the steelmaking process but remains early stage with challenges in efficiency and cost.

Over-reliance on traditional blast furnace-blast oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) remains common, accounting for over 70 percent of global production capacity.

Policy and Regulatory Support

Recent U.S. legislation includes:

• $5.8 billion via the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) for industrial carbon reduction technologies.
• Opportunity for the creation of additional R&D programs for low-emission steel technology (included in the SUPER Act).
• Implementation of methodologies to incentivize a domestic clean steel sector, with a view to competing against global exporters.

The U.S. government has a role in facilitating innovation but also needs to avoid rushing deployment without ensuring maturity and cost-competitiveness.

Economic and Competitive Outlook

• Clean steel technologies are currently 10-50% more expensive than traditional BF-BOF methods.
• Tax incentives under the IRA may help achieve price parity in the medium term through RD&D.
• Risk of carbon leakage remains high if international differences in climate policy enforcement continue.

Global Actions

• Innovation Frontiers: Swedens's HYBRIT project and projects in Europe under the SIDERWIN program are examples of nascent full decarbonization efforts.
• Commercial Deployment: Initial partial retrofits in the U.S. (ArcelorMittal, US Steel) and the Al Reyadah DRI plant in Abu Dhabi highlight progress but face scaling difficulties.

Final Outlook

• Achieving widespread net-zero steel production by 2050 remains a long road.
• Success hinges on continued innovation, cost reduction, supportive policy through a combination of RD&D, regulatory measures, and trade protections.