欧洲对外关系委员会-美国战略重点的演变（英文）-2021.3-12页_47kb

报告摘要

Summary of "THE EVOLUTION OF US STRA PRIORITY" by Carl Bildt (March 2021)

Core Content

The document "THE EVOLUTION OF US STRA PRIORITY" outlines the evolution of U.S. strategic thinking and policy priorities under the Biden administration, particularly through the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG). It compares this with the 2015 National Security Strategy (NSS) and the 2017 NSS, highlighting the shift in U.S. foreign policy from a more global and cooperative stance to a focus on strategic competition, especially with China, and the defence of democracy.

Main Policy Priorities

1. International Order

The 2015 NSS emphasized a rules-based international order and the importance of multilateral institutions.
The 2017 NSS took a more skeptical view, arguing that international institutions had undermined U.S. sovereignty and that the U.S. should prioritize its own interests.
The 2021 INSSG returns to the idea of international cooperation but with a cautionary tone, recognizing that the alliances and institutions the U.S. helped establish are under threat. It advocates for working with allies and partners to address global challenges.

2. Trade Policy

The 2015 NSS promoted a global free trade agenda, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Transatlantic Trade Partnership (T-TIP), aiming to set global standards.
The 2017 NSS ignored these initiatives, focusing instead on trade imbalances and fair practices, and excluding the European Union from trade agreements.
The 2021 INSSG adopts a more domestic and defensive approach, ensuring that trade serves all Americans. It does not pursue new trade deals without investment in communities and workers.

3. Military Power

The 2015 NSS emphasized arms control and the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, including support for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and non-proliferation.
The 2017 NSS shifted focus to deterrence, modernizing the U.S. nuclear triad and prioritizing military strength as a tool for influence.
The 2021 INSSG re-emphasizes arms control and the need to deter Chinese aggression, while also acknowledging the strategic importance of military force but advocating for its use as a last resort.

Regional Priorities

The 2021 INSSG highlights a pivot to the Indo-Pacific, with a robust U.S. presence in this region.
The Middle East is a focus for de-escalation and avoiding forever wars, which have cost trillions and drained resources.
The 2015 and 2017 NSS focused more on counterterrorism and economic modernization in the Middle East, but the 2021 INSSG shifts to addressing root causes and promoting a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Technology and Cybersecurity

Technology and cyber issues have become increasingly central in U.S. strategic thinking.
The 2015 NSS was optimistic about the U.S. leading in a networked world.
The 2017 NSS focused on countering malign cyber activities.
The 2021 INSSG emphasizes the strategic competition in technology, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 5G, and the need to reinvest in technological leadership to maintain a competitive edge against China.

Emerging Concerns

Democracy is now a key strategic interest, with the 2021 INSSG highlighting the need to defend democratic values globally.
Climate change is seen as a critical and urgent issue, with the 2021 INSSG stating that the world faces a deepening climate emergency.
Global health security is also emphasized, particularly the prevention of pandemics, with the U.S. committing to accelerate global health initiatives and shape new norms in this area.

Conclusion

The U.S. strategic priorities have evolved significantly from the 2015 vision of global cooperation to the 2021 emphasis on competition with China, defending democracy, and addressing climate and health threats. The shift reflects a more realistic and defensive approach, while still recognizing the importance of multilateralism and alliance-building.

Key Differences Between the Documents

Aspect	2015 NSS	2017 NSS	2021 INSSG
International Order	Emphasizes multilateralism and rules-based order	Skeptical, prioritizes U.S. sovereignty	Returns to multilateralism with caution
Trade Policy	Global and transformative	Focuses on trade imbalances and fair practices	Domestic and defensive approach
Military Strategy	Arms control and non-proliferation	Deterrence and modernization	Deterrence with emphasis on China
Regional Focus	Global and balanced	More focused on Middle East	Pivot to Indo-Pacific, de-escalation
Technology	Optimistic and forward-looking	Focus on cyber threats	Strategic competition in emerging tech
Democracy	Not a central theme	Not a central theme	Central theme and priority
Climate	Mentioned but not a priority	Not a priority	Urgent and central priority
Global Health	Not a priority	Not a priority	Central priority

About the Author

Carl Bildt is a co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

About ECFR

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is a pan-European think tank launched in 2007.
It focuses on research and policy development with a values-based approach to European foreign policy.
ECFR has offices in major EU cities and a diverse Council of over 200 members, including politicians and experts.
It does not take collective positions and is funded by foundations, individuals, and corporations.