欧洲对外关系委员会-这很复杂：俄罗斯与中国的微妙关系（英）-2021.12-19页_87kb

IT S COMPLICATED: RUSSIA RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA

Summary

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the evolving relationship between Russia and China, highlighting the complex interplay of political, economic, and strategic factors. It argues that while the two countries share some common ground, particularly in their opposition to Western liberalism, they are not forming a formal alliance of autocracies, nor is the West likely to succeed in dividing them. Instead, the relationship is characterized by a mix of cooperation, caution, and strategic hedging.

Core Content

• Russia and China are not forming an alliance of autocracies, and the West has limited influence in separating them.
• Russia's relationship with China is pragmatic, not ideological, driven by mutual strategic interests rather than shared political values.
• The Kremlin views China as a necessary partner, especially given the growing influence of the U.S. and the need to maintain economic and security ties.

Main Views

• Russia's perception of China has evolved over time. While it once saw China as a less developed, younger nation, it now recognizes China as a significant economic and political player.
• Economic complementarity between Russia and China is a key factor in their relationship, with trade in energy, agriculture, and infrastructure growing steadily.
• Russia is cautious about China's influence, especially in areas like technology, media, and cultural penetration, and is working to maintain autonomy and sovereignty.
• The strategic non-choice of Russia is to maintain cordial relations with China, as it sees the West as an existential threat and China as a more predictable and less ideologically opposed partner.

Key Information

• Military cooperation is present but not formalized, with both sides avoiding a full military alliance due to strategic and political considerations.
• China's growing assertiveness in global affairs, including its influence in the South China Sea and its role in the Belt and Road Initiative, has raised concerns in Moscow.
• Russia's security services are wary of Chinese technology and media, leading to a more cautious approach in their interactions.
• The West's role is limited, but it can provide Russia with strategic space to hedge against China, particularly in advanced technologies.
• Russia's foreign policy is not ideologically driven, and it has learned to prioritize pragmatic relationships over ideological alignment.

Strategic Non-Choice

• The Russian government does not see China as a threat but as a necessary partner in a world where U.S. dominance is waning.
• Russia does not want to be caught in a U.S.-China bipolar world, and prefers a flexible, non-aligned approach.
• Russia's authoritarian model is not a fixed ideology but a response to internal and external pressures, making it more adaptable than China's.

Pragmatic Non-Ideology

• Russian leaders view China as a pragmatic actor, unlike the West, which they see as ideologically driven and unpredictable.
• Russia has learned from its past experiences with the U.S. and the Soviet Union, recognizing that ideological purity is not always beneficial.
• The Kremlin has shifted its foreign policy focus from ideological to strategic, prioritizing economic and geopolitical interests over political alignment.

A Flexible Non-Alliance

• The Russia-China relationship is not based on ideology but on shared resistance to Western liberalism and a desire for strategic autonomy.
• While military cooperation exists, it is not formalized, and both sides avoid making binding commitments.
• The relationship is more about mutual benefit than ideological unity, with each country acting in its own interest.

Terra Incognita: China's Place in Russian Policy

• Russia lacks deep expertise on China, unlike its experience with the Middle East and the West.
• The Kremlin is still in the process of understanding China, and its approach is more reactive than strategic.
• Russian universities have increased their focus on China, which may lead to better understanding and more informed policy in the future.

An Unclear Relationship Model

• The relationship lacks a coherent strategy, with policies often driven by short-term interests rather than long-term planning.
• High-level political meetings are frequent, but they do not translate into consistent, unified policies at the grassroots level.
• The Kremlin does not see the need for deep expertise on China, as it assumes that economic ties are sufficient for maintaining the relationship.

Conclusion: What the West Can Do

• The West should avoid double containment strategies and instead focus on strategic engagement with Russia.
• Europe, in particular, needs to adapt to a more flexible and pragmatic foreign policy approach.
• The EU can provide Russia with space to hedge against China in certain technological areas, but this requires careful balancing of interests and priorities.

Key Takeaways

• Russia and China are strategic partners, not ideological allies.
• The West has limited influence over the Russia-China relationship.
• Russia is cautious about China's growing power and influence.
• The relationship is evolving, with both countries adapting to new geopolitical realities.