2023-09-06-IRENA-蒙古供暖系统的可再生能源解决方案_制定战略性供暖计划（英）_104页_11mb

Renewable Energy Solutions for Heating Systems in Mongolia: Developing a Strategic Heating Plan

Executive Summary

Mongolia's heating sector is heavily reliant on coal, leading to high pollution levels and health issues. The country has significant potential for renewable energy sources like solar, geothermal, and wind, but challenges include low energy efficiency, high pollution, and limited investment. The Strategic Heating Plan (SHP) promotes energy efficiency, smart energy systems, and district heating expansion to reduce reliance on coal and meet climate targets, such as reducing GHG emissions by 2030.

Introduction

Mongolia has one of the lowest population densities in the world, with rapid urbanization driving increased heat demand. Heating dependency on coal exacerbates air pollution and climate change. The SHP aims to modernize the heating sector by integrating renewable energy sources, reducing pollution, and improving energy efficiency.

Heat Demand and Resources

• Current Heat Demand: 98% of district heating and individual heating use coal. Heat losses in Ulaanbaatar's district heating network are around 17%, higher than similar cities.
• Energy Efficiency: Buildings have low energy efficiency, contributing to high heat demand. Energy efficiency measures could reduce heating demand by 47%.
• Renewable Resources: Mongolia has abundant solar, geothermal, and wind resources. Solar potential averages 1,400 kWh/m²/year, while geothermal sites like Tsetserleg offer high-temperature resources.

Case Studies

• Ulaanbaatar: A detailed energy system analysis shows that transitioning to a 100% renewable heating system by 2050 could reduce CO₂ emissions by 55% and primary energy use significantly.
• Khovd: Solar thermal and thermal storage integration reduced coal consumption and operational costs.
• Tsetserleg: Geothermal resources could meet a significant portion of heat demand, but further exploration is needed.

Barriers and Recommendations

• Barriers: High coal dependency, low energy prices, limited investment, and outdated infrastructure hinder renewable adoption.
• Recommendations:
  • Implement energy efficiency measures in buildings.
  • Expand district heating networks with modern, efficient pipes.
  • Integrate renewable energy sources like solar, geothermal, and wind.
  • Use heat pumps and thermal storage to balance variable renewable generation.
  • Develop supportive policies, tariffs, and ownership models to encourage investment.

Conclusion

The SHP provides a roadmap for Mongolia's transition to renewable heating, emphasizing energy efficiency and district heating expansion. Addressing key barriers through policy and investment will enable Mongolia to reduce pollution, meet climate targets, and leverage its renewable energy potential.