2025-06-04-Bernstein-美元树公司（DLTR）_速评_Dollar_Tree公司2025年第一季度-同店销售强劲_但预计关税将导致第二季度收益波动_12页_510kb

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) reported Q1 2025 earnings with a 5.4% comp sales growth, exceeding consensus expectations of 3.7%, driven by strong traffic and ticket increases. Adjusted EPS of $1.26 beat analyst estimates by 6 cents, supported by $500M in share repurchases year-to-date. The company maintained FY25 sales guidance of $18.5B-$19.1B and raised EPS guidance from $5.00-5.50 to $5.15-5.65, reflecting impacts from share repurchases and the Family Dollar divestment. However, DLTR now expects significant Q2 earnings volatility due to ongoing tariffs, potentially reducing Q2 adjusted EPS to $0.34-0.37 from consensus $0.66, despite strong comp sales growth expectations of 3-5%. Key positives include the multi-price rollout to 3,500 stores and the Family Dollar sale, but risks from structural changes and consumer economic softening were highlighted. The analyst rating is Market-Perform with a price target of $82, based on a P/E multiple. Overall, DLTR is seen as having positive growth catalysts but face challenges from deglobalization and potential consumer spending declines.