2025-06-04-Bernstein-第22周铁路指标_运量趋势继续表明第二季度有上行空间_CSX服务指标正在改善_23页_815kb

Airfreight & Surface Transportation Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of rail metrics and investment implications for the North American rail sector, with a focus on carload trends, service performance, and valuation metrics for major railroads including CSX, Norfolk Southern (NSC), Union Pacific (UNP), Canadian National Railway (CNI), Canadian Pacific (CP), and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC). The analysis is based on Week 22 data, with insights into quarterly performance trends, service metrics, and valuation comparisons.

Main Points

1. Carload Trends

• North American carloads show a slight slowdown in growth in the last 4 weeks (L4Ws), with a 2.5% YoY variance compared to 3.8% in the last 13 weeks (L13Ws). This is attributed to lingering effects of the tariff war, despite a 90-day tariff pause.
• CPKC is the only railroad showing improvement in all segments, with 10.1% YoY growth in L4Ws. This is driven by double-digit growth in intermodal (18.1%) and coal (11.8%).
• Coal volumes are beginning to stabilize, with Week 22 reporting 12.3% YoY growth versus 13.6% in L13Ws.
• Union Pacific (UNP) leads in coal growth with 31.1% YoY variance in L4Ws.
• Merchandise growth is showing slight improvement from L13Ws to L4Ws, with CPKC and UNP contributing positively, while CSX continues to underperform with a -2.2% YoY variance in L4Ws.

2. Implied Full-Quarter Performance

• Q2 projections suggest upside potential for carloads, with implied full-quarter YoY growth surpassing street estimates.
• UNP is expected to grow 5.2% YoY versus 2.8% consensus.
• NSC is projected to grow 4.6% YoY versus 2.3% consensus.
• CP is forecasted to grow 6.4% YoY versus 4.1% consensus.
• International intermodal trends could further boost Q2 performance.

3. Service Metrics

• Week 22 service metrics show modest improvements in speed for most operators, with CSX showing signs of improvement.
• BNSF stands out with significant improvement in dwell time, recording a -19% YoY 4WMA (lower dwell time indicates better performance).
• CSX has improved its service metrics compared to the previous week, with a -3% YoY variance in speed.
• CP experienced a deterioration in speed, with a -2% YoY variance.

Key Information

4. Valuation Metrics

• Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios for railroads as of June 4, 2025:
  • CSX: 19.3x (CY-2025), 16.6x (CY-2026), 18.2x (LTM), 18.0x (NTM), 15.9x (STM)
  • NSC: 19.7x (CY-2025), 17.5x (CY-2026), 20.4x (LTM), 18.7x (NTM), 16.7x (STM)
  • UNP: 19.3x (CY-2025), 17.4x (CY-2026), 19.7x (LTM), 18.4x (NTM), 16.7x (STM)
  • CNI: 18.7x (CY-2025), 16.8x (CY-2026), 19.7x (LTM), 17.8x (NTM), 16.1x (STM)
  • CP: 23.8x (CY-2025), 20.8x (CY-2026), 25.3x (LTM), 22.4x (NTM), 19.6x (STM)
• Average P/E ratio: 20.1x (CY-2025), 17.8x (CY-2026), 20.6x (LTM), 19.1x (NTM), 17.0x (STM)
• Median P/E ratio: 19.3x (CY-2025), 17.4x (CY-2026), 19.7x (LTM), 18.4x (NTM), 16.7x (STM)

5. Enterprise Value / EBITDA

• Average EV/EBITDA for railroads: 13.2x (CY-2025), 12.3x (CY-2026), 13.5x (LTM), 12.8x (NTM), 11.9x (STM)

6. Price / Sales Ratio

• Average Price/Sales for railroads: 5.2x (CY-2025), 4.8x (CY-2026), 5.3x (LTM), 5.0x (NTM), 4.6x (STM)

7. Free Cash Flow Yield

• Average Free Cash Flow Yield: 4.2% (CY-2025), 4.9% (CY-2026), 4.4% (LTM), 4.5% (NTM), 5.3% (STM)

Investment Implications

• Volume trends indicate potential upside for Q2 performance.
• CSX is showing improvement in service metrics, which is encouraging for the group.
• BNSF is not covered by Bernstein and uses repeated prior week data for reporting.

Conclusion

The North American rail sector is experiencing mixed performance, with CPKC leading in volume growth and CSX showing signs of recovery. While tariff effects are still influencing growth, the implied full-quarter performance suggests positive momentum for the second quarter. Service metrics are improving, and valuation ratios indicate that some railroads are undervalued compared to industry averages. Overall, optimistic trends are emerging, particularly in intermodal and coal volumes, and could drive better-than-expected results in Q2.