2025-06-17-Bernstein-味可美公司（MKC）_味可美2025年第二季度收益预览-关税透明度可能是吸引投资者的关键_15页_1mb

McCormick & Co. Inc. is rated "Outperform" with a price target of $101 per share, reflecting a 37% upside from the current closing price of $73.87. The rating emphasizes potential for accelerated EPS growth once tariff uncertainties are resolved.

Tariffs are a key focus in the upcoming earnings call. Analysts expect a gross 3% increase in Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) due to existing tariffs, with net impacts reduced through mitigation efforts like source switching and pricing adjustments. The average tariff rate could add approximately 3 percentage points to COGS, impacting overseas markets significantly.

Flavor Solutions volumes may face pressure from QSR and large CPG customers, offset by growth from additive reformulation and innovative products. However, margins are expected to improve as the company shifts toward higher-margin offerings, with QSR traffic projected to weaken through 2026.

The U.S. Consumer business remains stable, with volume growth of about 3% and price/mix adjustments below 2%, supporting the CEO's turnaround plan. Ongoing investments and systems upgrades should not hinder progress.

Investment implications highlight that tariff clarity could build confidence, encouraging position-taking ahead of earnings. EPS growth acceleration is anticipated over the next three years, with expectations of returning to 10-12% Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). Bernstein's financial forecasts show better-than-consensus margins and earnings for 2025-2027.

Valuation metrics, including an EV/EBITDA multiple of around 18x and an Adjusted P/E of 23.9x for 2025, suggest the stock is attractively priced relative to peers and the broader market, but remain sensitive to tariff outcomes.