菲律宾配电发展计划2030-155页_4mb

2021-2030 Distribution Development Plan (DDP) Summary

Overview

The Department of Energy (DOE) developed the 2021-2030 Distribution Development Plan (DDP) to guide distribution utilities (DUs) in planning resilient, reliable, and affordable electricity supply. This annual update integrates with national and local energy plans, including the DOE's Power Development Plan and the Philippine Energy Plan. DUs and the National Electrification Administration (NEA) collaborated to forecast demand and procurement needs, addressing economic growth and infrastructure challenges highlighted by events like COVID-19 and natural disasters.

National Supply-Demand Outlook

• Total Demand Projection: Non-coincident peak demand is expected to rise from 11,706.94 MW in 2020 to 17,882.77 MW in 2030, with a 4.33% annual average growth rate (AAGR).
• Supply and Deficit: Total contracted supply in 2020 was 11,260.93 MW, including planned procurement. Deficits are expected to increase annually, driven by uncontracted demand.
• CSP Schedule: Competitive Selection Process (CSP) covers uncontracted needs, with utilities scheduling additional capacity ranging from 237.05 MW to 7,659.03 MW by 2030.

Regional Highlights

• Luzon: Highest demand (8,043.88 MW in 2020, projected to 11,958.25 MW by 2030). Deficit expected in 2021 and grows. CSP primarily through domestic suppliers like NPC, targeting to reduce uncontracted supply needs by 32-64%.
• Visayas: Demand forecasted to increase from 1,863.35 MW in 2021 to 2,725.95 MW in 2030 (4.54% AAGR). Deficits start with 563.98 MW in 2021. CSP reduced uncontracted needs to 19-59%.
• Mindanao: Peak demand projected at 3,198.57 MW in 2030 (4.97% AAGR). Deficits begin in 2023, growing annually; supply coverage improved through CSP.

Key Strategies

• Demand-side management and cost-effective supply solutions.
• Integration of wholesale electricity spot market (WESM) and competitive power supply agreements.
• Collaboration with DUs to ensure continuous, affordable service through annual planning updates.

Importance

The annual DDP updates support national electrification goals and energy security, with a focus on least-cost power supply. DUs must submit realistic plans for integration, and data reliability faces challenges like varying grid types (on-grid, off-grid). Contact inquiries process available through DOE offices.