德银-欧洲-金属与采矿业-盈利升级和强劲的现金回报率？买入RIO、GLEN、FM-20180115-23页_2mb
报告摘要
Summary of Document: Metals & Mining Sector Analysis (January 15, 2018)
Core Content
This document provides an analysis of the European and North American metals and mining sector, with a focus on earnings upgrades, cash return expectations, and valuation insights for several major companies. It outlines the current market outlook, price forecasts, and investment recommendations based on updated commodity prices and company performance.
Main Points
- Commodity Price Rebound: Since early December, commodity prices have rebounded due to strong global GDP growth, tight supply, and seasonal factors. This has led to an increase in earnings and EBITDA estimates.
- Earnings and EBITDA Upgrades: EBITDA estimates for the sector have increased by ~10-15%, with large caps sitting >10% above the 2018 consensus.
- Price Forecast Adjustments: The document updates price forecasts for various commodities, including energy, bulk, and industrial metals, with some showing significant increases.
- Investment Recommendations: The report recommends buying Rio Tinto (RIO), Glencore (GLEN), and Fortescue Metals (FM), while advising to sell Antofagasta (ANTO), Boliden (BOL), and South32 (S32).
- Capital Discipline and Cash Returns: The report highlights the importance of capital discipline in the sector, with companies expected to focus on selective growth and improving returns. Rio Tinto is noted for its strong cash returns, with a dividend + buyback yield of over 8%.
- Valuation Analysis: Valuations are based on a combination of NPV (Net Present Value) and mid-cycle returns & cash flow. The report indicates that valuations are approaching fair value but still have 10-15% upside potential.
- Risks Identified: Key risks include commodity price volatility, sovereign risks, operational costs, currency fluctuations, and M&A activity.
- Sector Outlook: The overall sector outlook remains positive, with the potential for further re-rating due to ongoing capital discipline and improved returns.
Key Companies and Their Analysis
| Company | Rating | Target Price | EBITDA Change | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Tinto (RIO) | Buy | £4600 | +10% | Strong cash returns, high-quality assets, improved copper and aluminium exposure |
| Glencore (GLEN) | Buy | £450 | +10% | Strong organic growth in copper and zinc, attractive valuation |
| BHP Billiton (BHP) | Buy | £1900 | +12% | Improved returns, focus on brownfield copper projects, divestment strategy |
| Anglo American (AAL) | Hold | £1550 | +13% | High coal exposure, improved EBITDA, focus on divestments |
| Bolden Ab (BOL) | Sell | £260 | +4% | Peaking zinc prices, margin pressure, currency risk |
| South32 (S32) | Sell | £180 | +6% | Strong EBITDA revisions, but offset by currency and cost inflation |
| Antofagasta (ANTO) | Sell | £900 | +12% | Expensive valuation, higher unit opex guidance risk |
| First Quantum (FQM) | Buy | CAD23 | +10% | Superior medium-term copper growth, Cobre Panama project |
Commodity Price Forecasts (2018)
| Commodity | 2017 Forecast | 2018 Forecast | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI (bbl) | 50 | 56 | +12% |
| Brent (bbl) | 53 | 62 | +17% |
| US Natural Gas (mmBtu) | 3.0 | 3.0 | -1% |
| Thermal Coal (JFY) | 79 | 89 | +12% |
| Hard Coking Coal (JFY) | 205 | 193 | -6% |
| Low-volatile PCI (JFY) | 131 | 130 | -0.7% |
| Iron Ore (CIF) | 69 | 66 | -4% |
| Copper (USc/lb) | 276 | 326 | +18% |
| Nickel (USc/lb) | 467 | 545 | +17% |
| Zinc (USc/lb) | 131 | 141 | +8% |
| Gold (USD/oz) | 1,252 | 1,283 | +2% |
| Silver (USD/oz) | 17 | 17 | -1% |
| Platinum (USD/oz) | 950 | 1,034 | +8% |
| Palladium (USD/oz) | 871 | 1,168 | +34% |
| Rhodium (USD/oz) | 1,108 | 2,046 | +85% |
Key Valuation Metrics
| Company | EBITDA 2017 | EBITDA 2018 | FCF Yield | EV/EBITDA | Net Debt/EBITDA | Dividend Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Tinto (RIO) | £4,166 | £4,600 | 12.9% | 5.5x | 0.2x | 4.6% |
| Glencore (GLEN) | £407 | £450 | 10.2% | 6.5x | 0.6x | 4.0% |
| BHP Billiton (BHP) | £1,628 | £1,900 | 10.1% | 5.1x | 0.6x | 3.8% |
| Anglo American (AAL) | £3,150 | £3,988 | 11.5% | 4.7x | 0.6x | 4.4% |
| Ferrexpo (FXPO) | £315 | £280 | 11.2% | 6.6x | 0.7x | 3.1% |
| Bolden Ab (BOL) | £299 | £260 | 7.5% | 6.2x | 0.8x | 2.4% |
| South32 (S32) | £2,160 | £1,800 | 12.0% | 3.4x | 0.8x | 3.4% |
| Kaz Minerals (KAZ) | £951 | £950 | 6.0% | 7.6x | 2.2x | 0.0% |
Summary of Investment Cases
- RIO: Strong cash returns, disciplined capital allocation, and growth in copper and aluminium.
- GLEN: High exposure to copper and zinc with strong organic growth.
- BHP: Improved returns from brownfield projects and divestment strategy.
- AAL: High coal exposure and EBITDA growth.
- BOL: Downgraded due to zinc price peaking and margin pressure.
- S32: Strong EBITDA revisions, but offset by currency and cost inflation.
- ANTO: Expensive valuation and potential for higher unit costs.
- FQM: Superior medium-term growth and FCF inflection from the Cobre Panama project.
Conclusion
The document outlines a positive outlook for the metals and mining sector, with a focus on capital discipline, strong cash returns, and growth in base metals. While several companies are recommended for purchase, others are downgraded due to valuation concerns, earnings pressure, and operational risks. The key drivers for the sector include improved commodity prices, reduced debt, and selective growth strategies. Investors are advised to closely monitor commodity price volatility, currency movements, and operational costs as potential risks.
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