15个将塑造2018年科技的趋势（英文版）_30页_5mb

15 Tech Trends Shaping 2018

Core Content Overview

This document outlines 15 key technology trends that are expected to shape the tech sector in 2018, based on insights from CB Insights analysts. These trends span various domains, including automotive, AI, cloud computing, fitness, healthcare, retail, and augmented reality, reflecting the evolving landscape of technology and its integration into daily life.

1. Cars Become a Subscription Good

• Trend Description: Car subscriptions are emerging as an alternative to traditional ownership, offering monthly fees that include insurance, maintenance, and flexibility to switch vehicles.
• Key Players: Startups like Fair and major automakers such as Volvo, Lincoln, and Porsche are entering this space.
• Challenges: Limited availability in specific regions and models.
• Importance: 2018 is a make-or-break year for this model, which could redefine car ownership and appeal to users who prefer convenience over ownership.

2. The Global Race for AI Chip Dominance Heats Up

• Trend Description: Governments and tech giants are competing to develop AI chips that outperform NVIDIA's GPUs.
• Key Players: NVIDIA (leading the market), Intel (acquiring Altera and other AI startups), Google (TPU development), Apple (A11 Bionic chip), and emerging startups like Graphcore and Mythic.
• Strategic Moves: Google allows developers to build on other chips before moving to its TPU, while Apple focuses on machine learning for AR and facial recognition.
• Implication: AI chip development is a critical battleground for tech supremacy, with significant implications for innovation and security.

3. The Rise of Massive Simultaneous Online Social Communities (MSOCs)

• Trend Description: Live-streamed social games like HQ Trivia are creating new platforms for real-time, large-scale interaction.
• Key Players: HQ Trivia, The Q, Showtime (India), and Facebook's Bonfire.
• Impact: These apps are changing how people engage with content and each other, offering rewards and shared experiences.
• Expectation: More MSOCs will emerge in 2018, driven by the demand for interactive, real-time online experiences.

4. The Great Cash Windfall of 2018 Will Give Large Tech Companies Even More Power

• Trend Description: The US tax plan allows tech companies to repatriate overseas profits at a lower rate, potentially boosting their financial resources.
• Key Players: Apple, Oracle, Alphabet, and Microsoft.
• Impact: This windfall could lead to increased M&A, share buybacks, or reinvestment in innovation.
• Example: Apple has $252B in offshore profits, which could be used to strengthen its market position.

5. Cross-Border M&A and Partnerships Draw Scrutiny

• Trend Description: Geopolitical tensions are influencing M&A decisions, particularly involving China and the US.
• Key Examples: Blocked acquisitions like Lattice Semiconductor and Gland Pharma.
• Concerns: Intellectual property, technology transfer, and national security are key issues in cross-border deals.
• Implication: Tech M&A is becoming more regulated, especially in sensitive sectors like cybersecurity and healthcare data.

6. People Take Cybersecurity into Their Own Hands

• Trend Description: Individuals and enterprises are increasingly taking proactive steps to secure their data.
• Key Players: Applority, Brave, Zimperium, and AIG.
• Solutions: Mobile app security, browser privacy, employee training, and cyberinsurance.
• Message: Cybersecurity is shifting from corporate responsibility to individual awareness and action.

7. Pay-Per-Second Cloud Computing

• Trend Description: Cloud providers are introducing flexible, cost-effective billing models based on usage time.
• Key Players: Amazon, Google, and Snowflake Computing.
• Impact: This trend makes cloud resources more accessible to small businesses and entrepreneurs.
• Future Outlook: Expect more tools and services to be available on a pay-per-second basis, enhancing accessibility and efficiency.

8. The Future of Fitness is No Gym at All

• Trend Description: Fitness is becoming more tech-driven and accessible through connected hardware and live-streaming.
• Key Players: Peloton, BurnAlong, Forte, ClassPass, Aaptiv, and Westin Hotels.
• Innovations: Internet-connected bikes, live-streaming workouts, and in-hotel fitness amenities.
• Trend: Fitness is increasingly personalized and integrated into daily life, with no need for traditional gym settings.

9. Swallow a Smart Pill for Better Diagnostics and Treatment

• Trend Description: Smart pills with embedded sensors and cameras are being developed for health monitoring and diagnostics.
• Key Players: Proteus Digital Health, Abilify MyCite, PillCam, and Embark.
• Applications: Tracking medication adherence, colon cancer detection, and genetic analysis.
• Challenges: Regulatory hurdles and privacy concerns, but growing acceptance is expected.

10. Personalize the Pooch

• Trend Description: Pet tech is evolving to include smart dog houses, health monitors, and genetic analysis.
• Key Players: ZenCrate, Tesla Technology, FitBark, PitPat, and Embark.
• Features: Music, climate control, health tracking, and ancestry analysis.
• Implication: Pets are becoming more integrated with smart home and health technologies.

11. Under Pressure, Physical Retail Invades New Spaces

• Trend Description: Retail is moving beyond traditional stores into new, decentralized formats.
• Key Players: Walmart, Bodega, Acure (Japan), and BingoBox (China).
• Concepts: In-home e-commerce, unmanned kiosks, and smart vending machines.
• Impact: This trend reflects the growing integration of physical and digital retail, with convenience and automation at the core.

12. Holograms Become a Format for Augmented Reality

• Trend Description: Holograms are gaining traction as a medium for AR applications.
• Key Players: Apple (patents and ARKit), Magic Leap, Lightform, and Looking Glass.
• Applications: Military training, medical imaging, entertainment, and virtual concerts.
• Implication: Holograms are becoming a viable format for immersive AR experiences, with potential for widespread adoption.

13. 3D Printing Moves from Novelty to Essential Industrial Tool

• Trend Description: 3D printing is transitioning from a novelty to a critical part of industrial manufacturing.
• Key Players: Adidas (Futurecraft 4D), GE Additive (large-scale metal printing), and Carbon (fast 3D printers).
• Benefits: Reduced supply chain complexity, lower costs, and increased customization.
• Expectation: 3D printing will play a larger role in producing high-value components and commercial aircraft parts.