CBInsights-15个将塑造2018年科技的趋势（英文版）-2017-32页-5mb

报告摘要

2018 Tech Trends Summary

Core Content

The document outlines 15 key technology trends expected to shape the industry in 2018, highlighting shifts in consumer behavior, business models, and regulatory environments.

Main Trends and Key Points

1. Car Ownership Models Shift to Subscription

Concept: Car subscriptions allow users to pay a monthly fee for car usage, including insurance and maintenance.
Providers: Startups like Fair and major automakers such as Volvo, Lincoln, and Porsche are offering subscription services.
Benefits: Eliminates depreciation pain and complex leasing contracts.
Challenges: Limited availability and geographic restrictions.
Significance: 2018 is a make-or-break year for this model, with Fair partnering with 100 dealers and Volvo launching its first subscription cars.

2. Global AI Chip Race Intensifies

Context: AI applications are growing rapidly, driving demand for specialized chips.
Players: The U.S. and China are competing for dominance, with NVIDIA leading the market.
Government Backing: China aims to reach AI parity with the U.S. by 2020 and lead by 2030.
Tech Giants: Google, Apple, and Intel are investing heavily in AI chip development.
Emerging Startups: Companies like Graphcore, Knuedge, and Mythic are gaining traction and may become M&A targets.

3. Massive Simultaneous Online Social Communities (MSOCs) Rise

Trend: Live-streamed interactive experiences with large groups of strangers gain popularity.
Examples: HQ Trivia, The Q, and Showtime offer live trivia games with cash prizes.
Implications: This model could lead to more interactive and monetizable online communities.
Future Outlook: Expect more such platforms in 2018, driven by demand for real-time engagement.

4. U.S. Tax Law Boosts Tech Companies' Cash Flow

Policy: New tax law allows U.S. corporations to repatriate overseas profits at 15.5%.
Impact: Tech firms like Apple, Oracle, Alphabet, and Microsoft can bring back billions.
Use of Funds: Likely to be used for share buybacks, M&A, or reinvestment in growth areas.
Apple Example: Holds $252B in offshore profits, making it a prime beneficiary.

5. Cross-Border M&A and Partnerships Face Scrutiny

Regulatory Challenges: Geopolitical tensions lead to increased government oversight.
Examples: U.S. blocked Lattice Semiconductor acquisition by a Chinese investor; India blocked a Chinese pharmaceutical deal.
Concerns: Fear of data control, IP theft, and national security risks.
Cybersecurity Example: U.S. banned Kaspersky Lab due to Russian ties and election interference concerns.

6. Individual Cybersecurity Becomes a Priority

Rise in Cyber Threats: Major breaches like Equifax and Yahoo highlight vulnerabilities.
Consumer Response: Individuals are taking more responsibility for their own cybersecurity.
Solutions: Apps like Applority scan for risky behavior; browsers like Brave block trackers.
Enterprise Focus: Companies are training employees and using tools like Zimperium to protect against threats.

7. Pay-per-Second Cloud Computing Gains Traction

Model: Cloud services are now billed by the second, allowing cost-effective usage.
Adoption: Amazon, Google, and Snowflake Computing have introduced this model.
Benefits: Makes advanced computing tools accessible to small businesses and entrepreneurs.
Future Outlook: Expect more flexible and affordable cloud access in 2018.

8. Fitness Becomes Gym-Free

Trends: Connected fitness equipment, live-streaming, and integration with travel.
Examples: Peloton, BurnAlong, Forte, and ClassPass offer home-based fitness solutions.
Partnerships: Westin Hotels and Peloton collaborate on in-room fitness equipment.
Technology: Wearables and on-demand personal trainers (e.g., Handstand, Embark) are emerging.

9. Smart Pills Revolutionize Diagnostics and Treatment

First Approval: FDA approved the first smart pill, Abilify MyCite, in November 2017.
Functionality: Tracks medication adherence and sends data to patients or doctors.
Other Innovations: Capsule endoscopes like PillCam Colon 2 offer non-invasive diagnostic options.
Future Potential: More regulatory approvals and adoption expected as the technology matures.

10. Pets Become Tech-Enabled

Smart Pet Products: Devices like the Samsung Dream Doghouse, ZenCrate, and Tesla’s T-Pai offer advanced features.
Health Monitoring: Wearables like FitBark and PitPat track pet activity and health.
Genetic Analysis: Embark provides genetic insights for dogs, similar to 23andMe for humans.
Emotional Support: The Dog PC offers educational and entertainment tools for pets.

11. Physical Retail Expands into New Spaces

Concept: Retail is moving from traditional stores to co-working spaces, Uber, and in-home kiosks.
Examples: Walmart's "in-home e-commerce" patent and Bodega’s unmanned kiosks.
Global Trends: Acure in Japan and BingoBox in China are also exploring similar models.
Future Outlook: Expect more automation and integration of retail into everyday environments.

12. Holograms Become a Format for Augmented Reality

Applications: Used in military training, medical education, and entertainment.
Technology: Companies like Magic Leap, Lightform, and Looking Glass are developing holographic displays.
Consumer Use: 8i uses ARKit to create holographic visualizations from video.
Cultural Impact: Holograms of deceased artists are used in concerts to revive past performances.

13. 3D Printing Evolves into an Industrial Essential

Industrial Use: 3D printing aims to replace traditional supply chains by producing items on-site.
Efficiency: Reduces labor costs, waste, and transportation needs.
Adoption: Adidas uses 3D printing to create shoes in 20 minutes instead of 1.5 hours.
Future Outlook: Continued integration into manufacturing and consumer goods.

Conclusion

These trends reflect a broader shift toward tech-enabled, personalized, and accessible solutions across various industries. From car subscriptions to smart pills and holographic AR, 2018 is set to be a transformative year for technology, driven by innovation, investment, and regulatory changes.

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