15个将塑造2018年科技的趋势（英文版）_32页-5mb

报告摘要

2018 Tech Trends Summary

Core Content

2018 was marked by a series of transformative trends that reshaped the tech industry. These trends spanned from changes in car ownership models to the rise of AI, cybersecurity, and the digitization of fitness and pet care. The following is a detailed summary of the 15 key trends identified.

Main Trends and Key Points

1. Car Ownership Models Shift to Subscription Services

Concept: Car subscription services allow users to pay a monthly fee for car usage, including insurance and maintenance.
Key Players: Startups like Fair, and major automakers such as Volvo, Lincoln, and Porsche have introduced subscription-based models.
Benefits: Reduces the hassle of car ownership and allows users to switch cars easily.
Challenges: Limited availability and geographic constraints (e.g., Fair in California, Porsche in Atlanta).
Significance: 2018 was a make-or-break year for this model, with potential to disrupt traditional car ownership.

2. Global Race for AI Chip Dominance

Context: AI applications are growing rapidly, driving demand for efficient and powerful AI chips.
Players: US tech giants (NVIDIA, Google, Apple), Chinese government-backed startups (Cambricon), and semiconductor firms (Intel).
Recent Developments: NVIDIA's GPUs are currently dominant, while Intel has made significant investments to catch up.
Emerging Startups: Companies like Knuedge, Graphcore, and Mythic are gaining traction and may become M&A targets.

3. Massive Simultaneous Online Social Communities (MSOCs) Rise

Concept: Live-streamed interactive experiences with large groups of users.
Examples: HQ Trivia, The Q, and Showtime offer live trivia games with cash prizes.
Impact: Demonstrates a growing demand for real-time, shared online experiences.
Future Outlook: More apps and platforms are expected to follow this model in 2018.

4. Cash Windfalls Empower Tech Giants

Tax Law Impact: New US tax law allows corporations to repatriate overseas profits at 15.5%.
Tech Companies Affected: Apple, Oracle, Alphabet, and Microsoft have large offshore profits.
Potential Uses: Share buybacks, M&A, reinvestment in capital expenditures, or startups.
Significance: This windfall could further consolidate the power of large tech companies.

5. Cross-Border M&A and Partnerships Face Scrutiny

Geopolitical Tensions: US government blocks deals involving tech and semiconductors with China.
Examples: Lattice Semiconductor acquisition by Chinese investor, Gland Pharma deal blocked by India.
Concerns: Data security, bioweapons, and cybersecurity threats are key reasons for scrutiny.
Implication: Cross-border M&A may become more cautious and regulated in the coming years.

6. Individual Cybersecurity Gains Momentum

Reasons for Concern: Major data breaches (Equifax, Uber, Yahoo) highlight vulnerabilities.
New Mindset: Cyber-safety is increasingly seen as an individual responsibility.
Solutions: Apps like Apphority scan apps for risk, Brave blocks trackers, and Zimperium monitors employee devices.
Cyberinsurance: Companies like AIG offer individual-focused plans for cyber threats.

7. Pay-Per-Second Cloud Computing Gains Traction

Development: Amazon and Google introduced per-second billing for cloud services.
Implication: Makes cloud computing more accessible for small businesses and entrepreneurs.
Future Potential: Could extend to advanced tools like deep learning and quantum computing.
Trend: Cloud services are moving toward more flexible and cost-effective pricing models.

8. Fitness Moves Beyond the Gym

Trends: Connected fitness hardware, live streaming, and integration with travel.
Examples: Peloton (internet-connected bikes), BurnAlong (live-streaming workouts), and Westin Hotels (fitness integration).
Alternatives: Aaptiv (audio workouts), Handstand (on-demand personal trainers).
Impact: Fitness is becoming more accessible, personalized, and tech-enabled.

9. Smart Pills Revolutionize Diagnostics and Treatment

FDA Approval: Abilify MyCite was the first FDA-approved smart pill.
Features: Sensors track medication adherence, data is sent to apps or doctors.
Other Innovations: PillCam Colon 2 uses cameras for early cancer detection.
Future Outlook: Expected to gain more regulatory approval and adoption in healthcare.

10. Pet Tech Emerges as a New Frontier

Smart Pet Products: Devices like ZenCrate, Tesla’s T-Pai, and the Dog PC provide interactive and health-focused solutions.
Health Monitoring: FitBark and PitPat track dogs' activity, sleep, and health.
Genetic Analysis: Embark offers DNA testing for dogs, similar to 23andMe for humans.
Trend: Pet care is becoming more tech-integrated and personalized.

11. Physical Retail Expands into New Spaces

Concept: Physical retail moves into co-working spaces, Uber, and unmanned stores.
Examples: Walmart’s "in-home e-commerce" patent, Bodega’s automated kiosks, and JD.com’s automated stores.
Technology: Sensors and QR codes enable seamless, contactless shopping.
Significance: Blurs the line between online and offline retail, offering convenience and accessibility.

12. Holograms as a Format for Augmented Reality

Applications: Military training, medical education, and entertainment.
Technologies: Apple's ARKit, Magic Leap, and Lightform enable holographic experiences.
Current State: Holograms are not yet widely available, but AR integration is growing.
Future Potential: Could become a mainstream format for AR interactions.

13. 3D Printing Moves Toward Industrial Essentiality

Potential: Reduces supply chain costs, labor, and waste by printing on-demand.
Adoption: Adidas partnered with Carbon to create the "Futurecraft 4D" shoe.
Impact: 3D printing is becoming a key tool in manufacturing and product development.
Trend: Expected to expand beyond novelty and into mainstream industrial use.

Conclusion

2018 was a year of transformation in the tech industry, with trends ranging from subscription-based car ownership to AI chip development, cybersecurity, and the digitization of fitness and pet care. These trends reflect a broader shift toward tech-enabled, personalized, and accessible services. As the year progressed, the role of tech in everyday life continued to expand, with both innovation and regulatory challenges shaping the landscape.

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