2017年-普华永道全球_Low_Carbon_Economy_Index_2017_14页_4mb

Summary of "Is Paris possible?" - Low Carbon Economy Index 2017

Core Content

The Low Carbon Economy Index 2017 assesses the progress of G20 countries in decarbonising their economies and compares it with the national targets set under the 2015 Paris Agreement. It highlights that while some countries have made significant strides, the global decarbonisation rate is still insufficient to meet the two-degree Celsius warming limit.

Main Points

• Global Decarbonisation Rate in 2016:

  • Global GDP growth was 3.1% in 2016.
  • Emissions growth was only 0.4%, leading to a 2.6% decrease in carbon intensity.
  • This rate is less than half of the 6.3% needed to limit global warming to 2°C.

• Top Performers in the Index:

  • The UK and China were the top performers, achieving significant reductions in carbon intensity.
  • The UK reduced carbon intensity by 7.7%, China by 6.5%, both exceeding the global average and their Paris Agreement targets.

• Inconsistent Progress:

  • While the UK and China made progress, other countries like India, Indonesia, and Turkey saw increased coal consumption.
  • Coal use fell by 1.4%, but gas and oil demand continued to grow by 1.8%.
  • Renewable energy sources like solar and wind grew by 30.0% and 15.9% respectively, but still represent a small share of the global energy system.

• Projected Decarbonisation Needs:

  • To meet the 2°C goal, the global average annual decarbonisation rate must exceed 4%.
  • Most G20 countries need to significantly increase their decarbonisation efforts to align with their national targets and the global goal.

• Key Countries and Their Targets:

  • China: 60%–65% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030 compared to 2005.
  • UK: Achieved a 7.7% reduction in carbon intensity, with plans to phase out coal by 2025.
  • EU: Aims for a 40% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2030.
  • India: Targets a 33%–35% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030.
  • Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, and others: Set varying targets, but all require a step change in decarbonisation efforts.

• Climate Risks:

  • Physical risks: Extreme weather events linked to climate change are expected to increase, posing threats to business operations and financial stability.
  • Policy risks: Countries with strong climate ambitions are implementing policies that may create challenges for those not yet acting.
  • Market and technology risks: Emerging technologies and business models are set to disrupt traditional energy systems, requiring adaptation and innovation.

• Importance of Climate Risk Management:

  • Financial institutions are increasingly expected to manage and disclose climate risks.
  • The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) was established to guide this process.

Key Information

• Carbon Intensity Trends:

  • The UK has the highest average decarbonisation rate since 2000 at 3.7% per year.
  • China's services sector growth (7.8%) has contributed to lower carbon intensity compared to secondary (6.1%) and primary (3.3%) sectors.

• Methodology:

  • The index uses data from BP, World Bank, PwC, IMF, UNFCCC, and national government agencies.
  • It calculates carbon intensity (tCO2/$m GDP) and projects the required decarbonisation rate to meet the 2°C target.
  • National targets include emissions from sectors beyond energy, such as land use and forestry.

• Visual Aids:

  • Figures and tables illustrate the current decarbonisation rates, future projections, and the gap between current efforts and the required pace.
  • The NDC pathway is an estimate of the decarbonisation rate needed to achieve the Paris Agreement targets.

Conclusion

The report underscores the urgency of accelerating the low carbon transition to meet the Paris Agreement goals. While some countries like the UK and China are leading the way, the global effort remains insufficient, and significant action is required across all G20 nations to mitigate climate risks and ensure long-term economic and environmental stability.