20160808-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_17页_1mb

报告摘要

Morning Express Summary

Core Content

The document is a financial research report from China Merchants Securities (HK), covering equity research highlights, macroeconomic comments, and market liquidity analysis for August 8, 2016. It includes analysis of specific stocks and broader market trends, including stock price movements, macroeconomic indicators, and corporate developments.

Key Stock Highlights

China Biologic Products (CBPO US, USD134.2, BUY, TP USD149.0)

Strong 2Q16 Performance: Revenue reached USD91.4mn, up 16% YoY (excluding RMB devaluation, 23% YoY growth). Driven by volume growth in albumin, human tetanus immunoglobulin, and placenta polypeptide products.
Gross Margin Recovery: Gross margin improved to 65.6% in 2Q16 from 60.2% in 1Q16, due to better product mix and higher ASP for key products.
G&A Expenses Increase: G&A expenses rose to USD12.6mn in 2Q16 from USD8.1mn in 2Q15, mainly due to share-based compensation and a USD1.2mn prepayment provision.
Facility Upgrade: The new facility in Shandong is on track to complete in 2H17E, with the GMP certificate expected by mid-2018.
Pipeline Development: Fibrinogen is in the late stage of clinical trials and expected to launch in 1H17E. The second-generation IVIG has not made significant progress.
Acquisition Deal: CBPO plans to acquire Guizhou Taibang, which may be accretive to earnings. The deal is expected to be completed by 4Q16.
Valuation: Current P/E is 27x FY17E, and PEG is 1.7x. The TP has been raised to USD149 from USD144.

Biostime (1112 HK, HK$24.2, BUY, TP HK$29.7)

Strong Swisse Growth: Swisse is expected to drive bright results in 2Q16E, with total revenue rising 56% YoY to RMB750mn.
Milk Powder Industry: Milk powder revenue is expected to fall 12% YoY to RMB740mn, but the company's overall revenue is projected to grow by 62% YoY to RMB3,180mn in 1H16E, and profit by 123% YoY to RMB458mn.
Valuation: Currently trading at 13.6x 2016E P/E, below its historical mean of 21x P/E and peers’ average of 18.6-22.8x P/E.
Upgrade to BUY: The pullback has widened the margin of safety, and the TP remains at HK$29.7, implying 18.2x 2016E P/E.
Earnings Outlook: The company's 2016-18E earnings estimates are 18% / 29% / 24% higher than consensus.

Macro Comments

UK Monetary Policy Response to Brexit

BoE Actions: The BoE cut interest rates by 25 bps to 0.25% and expanded QE by GBP60bn to GBP435bn, with a term lending program similar to the ECB's LTROs.
Economic Impact: Despite the rate cut, the BoE's QE scale remains lower than Eurozone and Japan. The UK economy faces downward pressure due to GBP depreciation and weak economic sentiment post-Brexit.
Political Uncertainty: Delays in invoking Article 50 may lead to further uncertainty, so the BoE may keep some easing measures in reserve.

Eurozone Economic Outlook

Moderated Growth: Eurozone GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.3% QoQ in 2Q16 from 0.6% QoQ in 1Q16. Industrial production fell -1.2% MoM in May.
ECB QE Concerns: The ECB may expand its QE program if growth further moderates, but there are concerns about liquidity and the ability to reach targets.

Market Liquidity Analysis

CMS A-Share Liquidity Index: The index has declined for three consecutive weeks, reaching a low of -0.055 since mid-July. Liquidity is expected to remain weak over the next two weeks.
Negative Factors: Weak market sentiment, stake reduction by shareholders, IPO activity, and accelerated refinancing are contributing to the liquidity decline.

What to Watch

Economic Data

China: Exports, imports, trade balance, PPI, CPI, M2 Money Supply, New Yuan Loans, Urban Investment, and Industrial Output.
US: API crude stocks, EIA crude stocks, Import Prices, and Initial Jobless Claims.
Eurozone: GDP Flash Estimate and PPI Final Demand.