20180703-大华银行-Macro_Note__RBA_Holds_Again_2页_252kb

报告摘要

RBA Holds Again Summary

Core Content

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its official cash rate (OCR) at the emergency low of 1.5% for the 21st consecutive meeting, indicating a continuation of accommodative monetary policy. This decision reflects the RBA's stance on maintaining support for the Australian economy amid ongoing economic and inflationary pressures.

Main Points

Monetary Policy Stance: The RBA decided to keep the OCR unchanged, emphasizing the need for gradual progress in reducing unemployment and bringing inflation back to its target level.
Economic Outlook: The central bank maintained a neutral and steady outlook, with the expectation that the economy will continue to grow sustainably. The unemployment rate is projected to gradually decline after remaining steady at around 5.5% for most of the past year.
Inflation and Growth: The RBA noted that inflation remains low, but it is expected to trend upward if oil prices increase. The Australian dollar (AUD) has seen a slight depreciation, but it is still within the range observed over the past two years.
Housing Market: The RBA acknowledged the potential for higher mortgage rates and tighter lending standards, but pointed out that the average mortgage interest rate on outstanding loans has been declining.
Currency Impact: Despite the RBA's decision, the AUD/USD pair remained bearish in the short term, with the currency still being the worst performer among G10 currencies this year, having fallen by around 6%.

Key Information

The RBA's statement showed no significant changes in its language regarding inflation and growth, maintaining a cautious but optimistic tone.
The first rate hike is still expected to occur in 2019, suggesting that the RBA is not in a hurry to tighten monetary policy.
The AUD/USD pair showed minimal movement immediately after the decision but edged higher to the 0.7370 level, indicating some short-term recovery.
The RBA's stance is consistent with the current economic conditions, balancing the need for support with the expectation of gradual progress.

Recent Publications

The document also lists several recent publications from UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, including:

FX Strategy: US Dollar Begins Second Half Of 2018 On A High Note (02 July 2018)
Indonesia: Slowing Inflation Even In Festive Month (02 July 2018)
Macro+FX Strategy: Malaysia - Stronger Fundamentals Provide Better Support For The MYR (29 June 2018)
Vietnam: Economic Growth Slows To 6.8% In Second Quarter (29 June 2018)
RBNZ Adopts Slight "Dovish" Tone (28 June 2018)
SGS: 20Y Auction Saw Good Demand And Remains Cheap On Relative Value (27 June 2018)
FX Strategy: Rally In USD/CNY Is Too Fast, Too Furious (27 June 2018)
Singapore May IP: Are We Selling What We Are Making? (26 June 2018)
Singapore: Inflation A Notch Higher, And May Continue If Oil Prices Trend Higher (25 June 2018)
Commodities Strategy: OPEC Compromise Reinforces Range Trading In Brent Crude Oil (25 June 2018)

These publications cover various aspects of foreign exchange strategies, economic fundamentals, and commodity market trends.

Disclaimer

This document is strictly informational and should not be used for investment decisions.
It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any securities.
The views expressed are those of the authors and may differ from the actual trading positions of UOB Group.
The information provided is based on publicly available data and assumptions, and may be subject to change.
UOB Group accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information or views in this document.