2025-06-11-花旗集团-每周供应监测_欧元_美国和英国供应展望_24页_468kb

Weekly Supply Monitor Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed overview of the supply outlook for government bonds in the Eurozone, the US, and the UK for the upcoming weeks. It includes scheduled bond issuances, coupon and redemption details, and the resulting net cash requirements (NCR) for each region. The data is presented in a structured manner with a focus on the impact of these cash flows on market participants and the use of DV01 (Dollar Value of a Basis Point) to quantify the potential market impact of each issuance.

Main Points

Eurozone Supply Outlook

• Total Euro Supply Next Week: Approximately €36bn from scheduled issuances.
  • EU: €10bn (estimated size, week commencing 16-Jun).
  • Germany: €4bn (4/8yr Bund/g, 21/29yr Bund).
  • Greece: €0.2bn (GGBs, estimated size).
  • France: €15.5bn (2-8.5yr OATs, OATEi/i).
  • Spain: €6bn (Bonus, estimated size).
• Coupons and Redemptions Eligible for Reinvestment: €6.2bn in coupons and €21.3bn in redemptions.

US Supply Outlook

• Total US Treasury Supply Next Week: Approximately $36bn.
  • 20-Year Sector: $13bn (week commencing 16-Jun).
  • 5-Year TIPS: $23bn (week commencing 17-Jun).
• No UST Cash Flows Eligible for Reinvestment.

UK Supply Outlook

• Total UK DMO Supply Next Week: £4.5bn across gilt 4.375% Mar30s.
• No Gilt Cash Flows Eligible for Reinvestment.

Key Information

Provisional Auction Calendar (Next Four Weeks)

• Week Commencing 16-Jun:
  • EU: €10bn (EU Syndication).
  • US: $13bn (20-Year), $23bn (5-Year TIPS).
  • Germany: €1bn (Green - Bob/olg 2.1% Apr29), €0.5bn (2.3% Feb33).
  • UK: £4.5bn (4.375% Treasury Gilt 2030).
• Week Commencing 23-Jun:
  • Germany: €4bn (Schatz Jun27).
  • UK: £1.25bn (IL35), £4.25bn (4.375% Treasury Gilt 2040).
  • US: $69bn (2-Year), $70bn (5-Year), $28bn (2-Year FRN).
• Week Commencing 30-Jun:
  • Germany: €4.0bn (New Bobl Oct30).
  • UK: £4.5bn (4.375% Treasury Gilt 2028).
  • Italy: €3.0bn (BTP short term), €2.5bn (BTPei).
• Week Commencing 07-Jul:
  • Austria: €1.75bn (RAGB).
  • Germany: €5.0bn (New Bund Aug35).
  • Spain: €6.0bn (Bonos), €0.5bn (SPGBei).
  • UK: £3.75bn (1.5% green Treasury gilt 2053).
  • US: $58bn (3-Year), $70bn (5-Year), $28bn (2-Year FRN).

DV01 of Issuance by Tenor

• Euro: Estimated DV01 of issuance is around €17 million/bp.
• UST: Estimated DV01 of issuance is around $32 million/bp.
• Gilt: Estimated DV01 of issuance is around £1.9 million/bp.

Global Net Cash Requirement (NCR) by Week

• EMU NCR:
  • Week Commencing 16-Jun: €8.0bn net supply, €21.3bn redemptions, resulting in NCR of €-13.3bn.
  • Week Commencing 23-Jun: €31.7bn net supply, €21.3bn redemptions, resulting in NCR of €10.4bn.
  • Week Commencing 30-Jun: €11.4bn net supply, €22.7bn redemptions, resulting in NCR of €-11.3bn.
  • Week Commencing 07-Jul: €28.5bn net supply, €19.9bn redemptions, resulting in NCR of €8.6bn.
• US NCR:
  • Week Commencing 16-Jun: $112bn net supply, $44bn redemptions, resulting in NCR of $68bn.
  • Week Commencing 23-Jun: $28bn net supply, $0bn redemptions, resulting in NCR of $28bn.
  • Week Commencing 30-Jun: $199.9bn net supply, $102.8bn redemptions, resulting in NCR of $97.1bn.
  • Week Commencing 07-Jul: $0bn net supply, $0bn redemptions, resulting in NCR of $0bn.
• UK NCR:
  • Week Commencing 16-Jun: £4.5bn gross supply, no coupons or redemptions, resulting in NCR of £4.5bn.
  • Week Commencing 23-Jun: £6.5bn gross supply, no coupons or redemptions, resulting in NCR of £6.5bn.
  • Week Commencing 30-Jun: £8.3bn gross supply, no coupons or redemptions, resulting in NCR of £8.3bn.
  • Week Commencing 07-Jul: £5.3bn gross supply, no coupons or redemptions, resulting in NCR of £5.3bn.

Additional Notes

• Legal Restrictions: Some data break-downs may be incomplete due to legal reasons.
• Trade Date vs. Settlement Date: Coupons and redemptions are typically allocated on a trade date basis, while the cash flow tables use a settlement date basis.
• Expected Additional Issues: Greece is expected to issue additional bonds totaling an estimated €1.5mn/bp in June.
• Futures Contracts: The document includes the approximate number of 10-year futures contracts associated with each issuance.

Summary of Key Metrics

• Total Euro Supply Next Week: €36bn.
• Total US Treasury Supply Next Week: $36bn.
• Total UK DMO Supply Next Week: £4.5bn.
• Total Euro Coupons and Redemptions Eligible for Reinvestment: €6.2bn coupons and €21.3bn redemptions.
• Total US Coupons and Redemptions Eligible for Reinvestment: $0bn.
• Total UK Coupons and Redemptions Eligible for Reinvestment: $0bn.

This summary provides a clear overview of the upcoming bond supply and cash flow dynamics for the Eurozone, the US, and the UK, highlighting the key figures and their implications for market participants.