2025-06-11-花旗集团-中国铝_2025年地面需求监测系列85_-铝库存和消费_10页_232kb

China Aluminum Market Update: June 2025 Analysis

Overview

Citi Research provides an update on China's aluminum market, tracking on-ground demand trends amid cautious expectations for recovery. The report highlights a revised sector pecking order: steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement. Key data from Mysteel includes production, inventory, and apparent consumption figures, indicating a mixed picture with declining inventory levels but rising consumption.

Production Summary

• Weekly Data (June 5-11, 2025): China's total aluminum production reached 844kt, flat week-on-week but up 3% year-over-year. Aluminum billet production was 364kt, increasing 2% week-on-week and 7% year-over-year.
• Year-to-Date Data: Cumulative production for the calendar year shows aluminum output at 20.1 million tons, up 3.3% year-over-year, with billet production at 8.0 million tons, rising 6.1% year-over-year.

Inventory Summary

• Current Levels (June 12, 2025): Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 718kt, down 7% week-on-week and 40% year-over-year. Social and producers' inventories were 604kt and 114kt respectively, decreasing 7% and 2% week-on-week.
• Year-Over-Year Comparisons: Inventory levels are significantly lower than those in 2021-2024, indicating a tighter supply in the market.

Apparent Consumption Summary

• Weekly Data (June 5-11, 2025): Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 911kt, up 6% week-on-week and 8% year-over-year. Ingot and billet consumption reached 507kt and 404kt respectively, growing 8% and 5% year-over-year.
• Year-to-Date Data: Cumulative apparent consumption for the year is 20.8 million tons, an increase of 6.2% year-over-year, with ingot and billet consumption rising 4.7% and 10.5% year-over-year.

Key Takeaways

• Aluminum inventory declined week-on-week, reflecting reduced stocks, while consumption rose, suggesting stronger demand in certain segments.
• Inventory levels are historically low compared to 2021-2024, potentially indicating market tightening.
• Apparent consumption is higher than in the same period over the past few years, signaling a positive but cautious outlook for the sector.