UNDP-内陆发展中国家推动经济多元化_实现_阿瓦扎行动纲领_（英）-2025_11页_2mb

Summary of An Economic Diversification Push for LLDCs

Core Content

Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs), comprising 32 nations, face significant trade and development challenges due to geographic isolation and economic concentration. These countries experience higher trade costs (1.4 times more than coastal partners), limited market access, and increased vulnerability to global commodity price fluctuations and tariff changes. The Awaza Programme of Action (APoA) aims to address these challenges by promoting economic diversification, regional integration, and digital trade infrastructure.

Main Challenges and Vulnerabilities

• Geographic Isolation: LLDCs are typically 1,370 km from the nearest seaport, leading to high transport and insurance costs that absorb nearly double the developing-country average of export earnings.
• Economic Concentration: Over 82% of LLDC exports are unprocessed primary commodities, making them highly susceptible to external shocks.
• Trade Dependency: Five countries account for 56% of all LLDC exports, with 14 LLDCs relying heavily on China as their primary market.
• Structural Disadvantages: LLDCs are 20% less developed than comparable coastal countries, with many also classified as Least Developed Countries (LDCs).
• Global Trade Uncertainty: Recent tariff shifts, particularly from the U.S. and EU, have increased trade costs and reduced export incentives, further exposing LLDCs to risk.

Key Scenarios

Scenario 1: Trade Intensification

• Description: Existing trade patterns are intensified, with increased reliance on China and other major partners for commodity exports.
• Opportunities: Infrastructure development via the BRI and access to affordable goods from China.
• Risks: Reinforced single-partner dependency, higher debt, and reduced diversification.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Streamline customs and border procedures using the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement.
  • Invest in transport infrastructure and dry ports.
  • Engage in corridor agreements with transit countries to reduce delays.
  • Leverage multilateral support and international partnerships to enhance trade resilience.

Scenario 2: Economic Diversification Push

• Description: LLDCs actively diversify their export sectors and seek new markets, including manufacturing and services.
• Opportunities:
  • Entry into global value chains (e.g., apparel, food processing, chemicals).
  • Potential for increased exports of critical materials (e.g., lithium, uranium) to countries reducing reliance on China.
  • Leveraging AfCFTA and regional economic communities to build value chains.
• Risks: Limited capacity to compete in high-value sectors; lack of skills and infrastructure.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Develop new export sectors (agro-processing, light manufacturing, niche services).
  • Create special economic zones and industrial parks with incentives for local job creation.
  • Strengthen domestic capacity through Aid for Trade and technical assistance.
  • Encourage regional cooperation and shared value chains to expand market access.

Strategic Policy Options

• Trade Facilitation and Infrastructure Connectivity:

  • Implement the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement.
  • Invest in transport networks and digital trade solutions.
  • Utilize BRI funding for infrastructure projects.

• Value Addition and New Product Expansion:

  • Focus on developing higher-value products and services.
  • Support domestic SMEs and entrepreneurs to move up value chains.
  • Encourage agro-processing and light manufacturing.

• Leverage Supply Chain Shifts:

  • Attract investors by improving the business climate and labor skills.
  • Participate in public-private partnerships for industrial park development.
  • Capitalize on Chinese firms seeking lower-cost production bases.

• Regional Integration and Transit Agreements:

  • Fully implement AfCFTA and other regional trade agreements.
  • Negotiate binding transit treaties with neighboring countries.
  • Promote cross-border transport freedoms and harmonized regulations.

• Multilateral Support and South-South Cooperation:

  • Secure Aid for Trade funding to address high trade costs.
  • Facilitate South-South cooperation through shared knowledge and investment.
  • Support digital trade and IT services to bypass physical trade barriers.

• Economic Resilience and Risk Management:

  • Build financial buffers (e.g., reserve funds, insurance mechanisms).
  • Diversify trade partners to reduce dependency on any single market.
  • Invest in human capital and digital infrastructure to adapt to new industries.

Conclusion

The Awaza Programme of Action offers a strategic framework for LLDCs to navigate global trade rebalancing and reduce their structural vulnerabilities. Economic diversification, regional integration, and multilateral support are critical to achieving sustainable development. By proactively shaping their trade policies and leveraging new opportunities, LLDCs can transform their geographic constraints into competitive advantages.

Key Statistics

• LLDCs account for 1.3% of global exports, with 82% being unprocessed primary commodities.
• Trade costs for LLDCs are 1.4 times higher than for coastal partners.
• 56% of LLDC exports go to five countries.
• 14 LLDCs have China as their primary export market.
• $1.4 billion in mineral, metal, and product exports to the U.S. between 2019 and 2023.
• $78.3 billion in imports from China in 2024, compared to $10.55 billion from the U.S.
• 28 out of 32 LLDCs are part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

References

• Altenburg, T. (2019). Migration of Chinese manufacturing jobs to Africa: Myth or reality?
• UNECE. (2023). Trade and transport connectivity for LLDCs: Challenges and policy solutions.
• UNCTAD. (2025). Sparing the vulnerable: The cost of new tariff burdens.
• Zuo, X. (2025). Recent study on manufacturing relocation from China.
• Nedopil, C. (2025). China Belt and Road Initiative Investment Report 2024.
• UNDP. (2025). Preliminary analysis of tariff impacts on LLDCs.