UNDP-新冠病毒流行背景下发展中国家贫困和弱势群体临时基本收入估算报告（英文）-2020.7-27页_964kb

Summary of "Temporary Basic Income: Protecting Poor and Vulnerable People in Developing Countries"

Core Content

This document explores the concept of a Temporary Basic Income (TBI) as a policy tool to mitigate the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on poor and vulnerable populations in 132 developing countries. It outlines three TBI scenarios based on different income thresholds and proposes a benchmark for the cost and coverage of such programs.

Main Points

1. Rationale for TBI

• The pandemic has caused significant job losses and income reversals, particularly in developing countries, where social protection systems are weak.
• Unconditional emergency cash transfers can provide immediate relief to those without access to social assistance or insurance.
• The TBI is designed to be temporary, lasting up to 9-12 months, and targeted to people with incomes below a vulnerability threshold.

2. Vulnerability Thresholds and TBI Scenarios

• Three TBI scenarios are considered:

  • Top-up transfers: Supplement existing incomes to reach a vulnerability threshold.
  • Half median transfers: Provide cash based on half the median per capita income or consumption.
  • Uniform transfers: A fixed $5.50 per day for all beneficiaries, regardless of location.

• Vulnerability thresholds vary by region:

  • $3.20 per day in East Asia and Pacific (EAP) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
  • $5.50 per day in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC).
  • $1.90 per day is the international poverty line, used as a baseline.

• Coverage of these schemes:

  • 44.1% of the total population in developing countries.
  • Regional coverage ranges from 25.6% in EAP to 66.8% in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

3. Estimated Costs

• The total monthly cost of TBI under the three scenarios:

  • Option 1 (Top-up): $199.9 billion, or 0.27% of GDP.
  • Option 2 (Half median): $257.0 billion, or 0.35% of GDP.
  • Option 3 (Uniform $5.50/day): $465.0 billion, or 0.63% of GDP.

• Regional cost breakdowns (as a percentage of GDP):

  • EAP: 0.08–0.26%.
  • ECA: 0.32–0.36%.
  • MENA: 0.22–0.57%.
  • LAC: 0.57–0.70%.
  • SSA: 0.76–2.71%.
  • South Asia: 0.21–1.27%.

• For 3–9 months of TBI:

  • Option 1 (Top-up): $0.60–$4.18 trillion, or 0.4–5.6% of the developing world's GDP.
  • Option 2 (Half median): $0.77–$2.79 trillion, or 0.6–3.8% of the developing world's GDP.
  • Option 3 (Uniform $5.50/day): $1.39–$4.18 trillion, or 1.0–5.6% of the developing world's GDP.

4. Key Impacts of TBI

• TBI can help cover essential needs, such as food, education, and healthcare.
• It may also protect human capital by enabling better nutrition and access to education and health services.
• TBI can support productive assets and diversify livelihoods, potentially boosting entrepreneurship.
• It is unconditional, avoiding behavioral conditions that could discriminate within households.

5. Challenges and Considerations

• The TBI is not a universal scheme, but targeted to those below a vulnerability threshold.
• There is a risk of inflation if the TBI is uniform, especially in low-income countries where people spend a larger share of income on food.
• Even with TBI, systemic challenges remain, such as building robust and equitable social protection systems that are politically viable and financially sustainable.

Key Information

• TBI is a feasible and urgent policy response to the economic shocks caused by the pandemic.
• The poorest and most vulnerable are disproportionately affected by job losses, income drops, and lack of social safety nets.
• Social protection systems in developing countries are underdeveloped, often excluded from informal workers.
• The costs of TBI are moderate, ranging from 0.27% to 0.63% of GDP, depending on the policy design.
• The uniform transfer of $5.50 per day is costlier but provides equal support across all regions.
• The TBI is not a long-term solution, but a temporary measure to build resilience and inform future social protection reforms.

Conclusion

This paper provides a benchmark for TBI costs and coverage in developing countries, highlighting the urgent need for unconditional cash transfers to support the most vulnerable populations. While TBI is feasible, it is not a panacea, and comprehensive social protection systems must be developed to sustainably address poverty and inequality in the long run.