2024-08-04-IEA-东南亚能源安全的气候弹性（英）_67页_8mb

Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia faces significant climate risks threatening energy security. Rising temperatures, intense rainfall, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, and sea-level rise are increasing the vulnerability of energy systems. Key impacts include operational disruptions to coal and critical mineral mining, reduced hydropower capacity, and strain on electricity grids due to extreme heat and cooling demand.

Climate Hazards:

• Temperature & Heatwaves: Projected to increase to 2-4°C by 2100, reducing solar PV and gas power generation efficiency and expanding grid stress.
• Precipitation & Flooding: Heavy rainfall events are becoming more intense, threatening hydropower, renewable installations, and critical mineral supply chains.
• Droughts: Reduced rainfall concentrates dry periods, raising drought and wildfire risks, particularly in Monsoon-influenced countries.
• Tropical Cyclones: Expected to intensify, posing risks to coastal infrastructure like refineries and power plants.
• Sea Level Rise: Affects over 400 million people in coastal areas, threatening port operations and coastal power infrastructure.

Impacts on Energy Supply:

• Fossil Fuels: Coal mines face flooding risks; refineries in low-lying areas threaten operations due to storm surges.
• Critical Minerals: Nickel, copper, and rare earth production face flooding and weather-related disruptions.
• Renewables:
  • Solar PV: Efficiency degradation and equipment damage occur under extreme heat.
  • Wind Power: Vulnerable to tropical cyclones.
  • Hydropower: Relies heavily on rainfall patterns, facing diminished capacity and increased flood risk.

Key Recommendations:

• Policy Integration: Weave climate resilience into national policies, regulations, and energy sector-specific guidelines.
• Investment Mobilization: Encourage public and private financial mechanisms such as insurance and concessional finance to fund climate resilience projects.
• Technology Adoption: Deploy energy-efficient cooling, promote nature-based solutions like mangrove restoration, enhance resilience through infrastructure-hardening (e.g., underground grids, reinforced turbines), and leverage digital tools for monitoring and response.
• Diversification: Diversify energy sources and enhance interconnections at regional levels to create flexible and reliable supply chains.

Conclusion:
Building climate resilience is vital to ensuring energy security in Southeast Asia despite increasing climate extremes. Strengthened co-operation, systematic assessments, and resilient investments are essential for safeguarding energy systems.