2018-东南亚的可再生能源（英文版）-11mb

Summary of "Renewable Energy in Southeast Asia" (2018 Compendium Report)

Core Content

This report, published by the CSIS-Pertamina Southeast Asia Energy Initiative, examines the role of renewable energy in Southeast Asia, focusing on its economic, political, and security implications in the Indo-Pacific region. It highlights the dynamics of the power sector, the growing importance of renewables, and the influence of foreign investment on the region's energy landscape.

Main Points

1. Renewable Energy Growth in Southeast Asia

• Southeast Asia is experiencing rapid economic growth, which is driving an increase in electricity demand.
• The region's electricity demand is projected to more than double by 2040, with renewable energy expected to play a significant role in meeting this demand.
• By 2040, coal is forecasted to account for 45% of the electricity mix, while renewables are expected to reach 40%.
• The major markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand are expected to see significant investments in renewable energy, with $430 billion projected to be invested in power generation capacity between 2017 and 2040, two-thirds of which will go to renewables.

2. Renewable Energy Targets and Potential

• Several Southeast Asian countries have set renewable energy targets, such as Indonesia's 23% by 2025, Thailand's 20% by 2036, and the Philippines' 35% by 2030.
• These targets are influenced by international commitments, such as the Paris Agreement, energy security concerns, and local air pollution issues.
• However, the potential for renewable energy growth may exceed these targets, especially in countries like Thailand and the Philippines, which have high solar potential and are capable of generating over 40% of their electricity from renewables if challenges are addressed.
• Indonesia's renewable energy potential may be overestimated due to low feed-in tariffs and poor investment climate.

3. Climate Change and Air Pollution

• Climate change poses long-term risks to Southeast Asia, particularly due to its vulnerability to rising sea levels and extreme weather.
• Despite not being a major contributor to global climate change, the region is actively participating in international climate negotiations.
• Air pollution is a more immediate concern, with many countries in the region having moderate air quality, but some cities, such as Jakarta and Hanoi, experiencing severe pollution.
• Renewable energy is seen as a key solution to reduce air pollution, as it emits little to no pollutants compared to fossil fuels.

4. Foreign Investment in the Energy Sector

• The Southeast Asian electricity sector is a major focus for foreign investment, with over $1.2 trillion needed for infrastructure modernization by 2040.
• Renewable energy is attracting investment from countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, and European nations.
• However, coal remains a major focus, especially for China, Japan, and South Korea, with these countries participating in numerous coal projects in Indonesia.
• The decline in demand for Indonesian coal could lead to a shift in fuel preference, making coal more attractive for countries like the Philippines and Malaysia.

5. Country-Specific Insights

Vietnam

• Vietnam has a high electricity demand, driven by the industrial sector, with a current consumption of 1,500 kWh per capita.
• The country has a target of 10% non-hydro renewables by 2030, up from negligible levels.
• EVN, the state-owned power company, owns over 60% of the generation capacity and is undergoing partial privatization.
• Solar and offshore wind have potential in Vietnam, particularly along the southern coast.
• However, financial challenges such as low feed-in tariffs and difficulty in securing land for development hinder progress.

Indonesia

• Indonesia is the largest coal producer and exporter in the world, with a significant share of the region's electricity generated from coal.
• The country has a target of increasing its renewable energy share to 23% by 2025, but this may be difficult to achieve due to low feed-in tariffs.
• The unequal distribution of renewable resources across the region is a challenge, with hydro potential concentrated in certain countries and solar and geothermal potential limited to others.

Key Takeaways

Key Takeaway 1: Renewable Energy Is Set to Grow in Southeast Asia, and There Is Potential for Growth Beyond the Countries’ Targets

• Renewable energy is expected to play a significant role in meeting the region's increasing electricity demand.
• Investment in renewables is projected to be substantial, with $430 billion expected between 2017 and 2040.
• Countries like Thailand and the Philippines have significant potential to exceed their renewable energy targets if challenges are addressed.

Key Takeaway 2: Climate Change Is an Important Issue for the Region, but Not Necessarily the Predominant Driver of Renewable Energy Growth

• Climate change is a long-term concern, but immediate issues such as air pollution and energy security are more influential in driving the adoption of renewables.
• While many countries have pledged to reduce GHG emissions, the primary motivation for renewable energy growth is often related to energy security and air quality improvement.

Key Takeaway 3: The Southeast Asian Electricity Sector Is a Major Focus for Foreign Investment

• Foreign investment is crucial for modernizing the region's electricity infrastructure, with significant contributions from China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, and European countries.
• However, coal projects continue to attract substantial investment, particularly from China, Japan, and South Korea.
• The shift in coal demand could affect the region's fuel preferences and grid mix.

Key Takeaway 4: Shifting Exporting and Importing Relationships Can Alter Fuel Preference and Thus the Region's Grid Mix

• Natural gas has historically been a major source of electricity, but its role is declining due to increasing coal use.
• Indonesia is expected to become a net importer of natural gas in the early 2020s.
• The decline in coal demand could lead to a shift in fuel preference, making coal more attractive for countries like the Philippines and Malaysia.
• ASEAN countries are working towards interconnecting their grids to enhance regional energy security.