irena-2021年度NDCS和可再生能源指标：我们在通往气候安全未来的正确道路上吗？（英）-2022-46页_5mb

Summary of NDCs and Renewable Energy Targets in 2021: Are We on the Right Path to a Climate-Safe Future?

Core Content

This report, published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2022, evaluates the progress of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and renewable energy targets as of November 2021, with a focus on aligning these commitments with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It highlights the gap between current NDCs and the required ambition to achieve climate-safe outcomes, and outlines the need for stronger commitments, better financing, and international cooperation.

Main Views

• NDC Ambition: As of November 2021, 91% of countries had submitted NDCs that are more ambitious than their initial pledges. However, even with these updates, the global GHG emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.7% above 2010 levels, leading to a temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century, which is still far above the 1.5°C target.

• Net Zero Pledges: More than 100 countries have committed to reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030. Combined with NDCs and net zero targets, these pledges could limit warming to 1.8°C, but are still insufficient for the 1.5°C pathway.

• Renewable Energy Targets: As of November 2021, 182 Parties included renewable energy components in their NDCs, but only 144 had quantified targets. These targets are often focused on power generation, with fewer addressing heating and cooling or transport. Only 13 Parties have set specific percentages for renewable energy in their overall energy mix.

• IRENA's 1.5°C Scenario: This scenario requires renewable energy to account for 74% of the world's total primary energy supply by 2050, compared to 14% in 2018, implying an eight-fold increase in annual growth. This would necessitate USD 131 trillion in aggregate investment between 2021 and 2050, with renewable power needing USD 1 trillion annually.

• Financing Gaps: The USD 100 billion per year climate finance target is expected to be met by 2023, but more investment is required to support the energy transition. Developed countries must increase their support for developing nations, especially Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), to ensure a fair and equitable transition.

• Need for Alignment: There is a mismatch between NDC renewable energy targets and national energy plans in 91% of countries. Aligning NDCs with national laws, policies, and strategies is essential for effective implementation.

• International Cooperation: A just and inclusive energy transition requires international collaboration, including technical support, finance, and policy coordination. The Just Transition Partnership in South Africa, launched at COP26, serves as a model for this.

Key Information

Renewable Energy in NDCs

• 109 Parties have defined renewable energy targets in their NDCs, with 49 focusing on additions (e.g., capacity in GW) and 13 on percentage shares in electricity mix.
• Only 13 Parties have committed to a percentage of renewables in their overall energy mix.
• SIDS are leading in setting 100% renewable electricity targets by or before 2030.

Climate Finance

• USD 131 trillion is estimated to be needed for the energy transition from 2021 to 2050.
• USD 1 trillion annually is required for renewable power deployment.
• USD 100 billion per year climate finance target is projected to be met by 2023.

NDCs and Global Emissions

• The original NDCs would limit global warming to 2.8°C by the end of the century.
• The new and updated NDCs combined with net zero pledges could reduce emissions by 20% by 2030 compared to the business-as-usual path, but still fall short of the 1.5°C goal.
• IRENA's 1.5°C Scenario requires a 45% reduction in emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050.

Sectoral Coverage

• All 194 NDCs include the energy sector in their climate action plans.
• Less than one-third of NDCs address end uses such as heating and cooling, and 27% and 24% cover energy efficiency and grid improvements, respectively.
• 80% of energy consumption in 2019 was from heating, cooling, and transport, highlighting the need for stronger targets in these areas.

Net Zero Commitments

• G20 members account for 75% of global GHG emissions, but only 11 have submitted NDCs with stronger ambitions than their previous versions.
• 7 Parties among G20 have set power targets, but only 2 have set them as a percentage of the electricity mix, both below 25%.

Conclusion

Despite increased ambition in NDCs and net zero pledges, the current trajectory is still not aligned with the 1.5°C goal. Stronger, more specific renewable energy targets, increased climate financing, and better alignment with national energy plans are crucial. International cooperation, especially in supporting LDCs and SIDS, is essential for achieving a just and inclusive energy transition. The Glasgow Climate Pact encourages countries to revisit and strengthen their 2030 targets by the end of 2022, which is a positive step towards the climate-safe future.